Following several turbulent months characterized by and , Thailand has a new Prime Minister. Bhumjaithai Party leader , who previously held the role of interior minister until June within the Pheu Thai-led coalition and served as health minister in the preceding military-led government, attained the top position on Friday after being a deputy prime minister on two occasions.
Anutin, aged 58, secured the premiership with the support of 311 out of 490 present House of Representatives lawmakers. This occurred one week after the Constitutional Court Pheu Thai’s second Prime Minister in two years, .
After more than two hours of debate preceding the roll call vote, Anutin defeated Chaikasem Nitisiri, Pheu Thai’s final eligible candidate. This was largely owing to the support of the progressive opposition People’s Party, which had agreed to a that stipulated Anutin’s pledge to dissolve parliament within four months, thus necessitating an early general election.
The People’s Party—a successor to the dissolved that garnered the most votes in on a pro-democracy agenda but was , a party which previously collaborated with conservative allies, including Bhumjaithai—now holds nearly a third of the lower chamber. It has maintained its position in opposition, leaving Anutin to lead a minority government that could encounter significant challenges in policymaking.
Mark S. Cogan, an associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Japan’s Kansai Gaidai University, informed TIME that Anutin would be “constrained severely”.
Nevertheless, the appointment of a new premier could, for the time being, conclude a period of instability for Thailand and provides Anutin an opportunity to demonstrate his leadership.
Here is what you should be aware of.
What are Anutin’s policies?
As coalition partners, Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai on multiple occasions, particularly regarding policies on , , and . Ultimately, Bhumjaithai departed the coalition in June due to a disagreement about Anutin’s continuation as .
Although Bhumjaithai is widely considered conservative, pro-military, and pro-monarchy, Cogan suggests Anutin probably gained the People’s Party’s backing because he appeared “more stable” than Pheu Thai. The latter had seen two premiers removed within two years due to ethics violations and had become unpopular due to its inability to fulfill economic campaign promises.
Cogan states that Thailand, under Anutin, will likely strive to distance itself from Pheu Thai’s past failures. This could include concentrating on infrastructure reforms and fostering regional partnerships. Cogan also mentioned that an Anutin administration might withdraw populist policies, such as Pheu Thai’s much-publicized , in favor of a more pragmatic approach.
Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow and acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, suggests that cannabis regulation could be a priority policy area under Anutin. As health minister in the government prior to 2023, Anutin advocated for decriminalizing cannabis, while .
Given Anutin’s royalist inclinations, Thailand’s is one area unlikely to undergo any reform.
Napon indicates that, generally, Anutin’s government might favor decentralization, potentially allocating greater authority or funding to local governments to begin cultivating support for future elections.
According to Napon, for Bhumjaithai, “it is always about, first and foremost, about local power brokers greasing the wheels of patronage.”
What’s next for Thai politics?
Should Anutin honor his commitment to dissolve the House of Representatives within four months, his time as premier will be brief. However, he might opt to disavow the agreement.
The People’s Party could attempt to unseat Anutin via a no-confidence vote if they believe he is breaking their agreement, but this would require the backing of Pheu Thai or other opposition parties. Cogan suggests that the upcoming weeks might enable Anutin to “whip” a new majority coalition, potentially incorporating parties that may have supported Pheu Thai in Friday’s vote.
Napon commented, “If he is truly the establishment pick, and the establishment sees that it’s not in its interest to hold a new election now, then, of course, why go against it?”
Pheu Thai’s trajectory might also influence Anutin’s tenure: the party’s patriarch, Thaksin Shinawatra—father of Paetongtarn and a former Prime Minister who returned in 2023 after years of self-exile, and was generally perceived as immune from prosecution while his party was in power— before Friday’s vote. He asserts he will return in time for his court appearance concerning a case that could result in imprisonment.
Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Thailand’s Ubon Ratchathani University, told TIME, “If next week the court rules against [Thaksin], that would make things a lot easier for Bhumjaithai and Anutin to buy more MPs from Pheu Thai.” He also pointed out that Anutin is likely to endeavor to witness the downfall of his former coalition partner, which had attempted to impede his ascent to the premiership.
Titipol further added: “Four months might not be helpful to Bhumjaithai to work on certain policy, but it’s long enough to take revenge on Pheu Thai.”
