The French government has fallen following a vote of no confidence on Monday, leading to Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s departure after just nine months in office.
The 74-year-old had initiated the vote under Article 49 of the French constitution, aiming to pressure lawmakers to endorse his proposal to cut €44 billion ($52 billion) from the 2026 budget in an effort to reduce the nation’s fiscal deficit. President Emmanuel Macron’s office announced Monday that he would designate a new Prime Minister “within the next few days,” who will become France’s fifth Premier in under two years.
“The greatest danger was inaction, allowing circumstances to persist without change, continuing politics as usual,” Bayrou addressed France’s National Assembly prior to the vote.
“You possess the authority to depose the government, but you lack the ability to alter reality,” he added. “Reality will remain unyielding. Expenditure will continue to escalate, and the already oppressive debt burden will grow heavier and more costly.”
France’s Debt Crisis
By the end of the first quarter of 2025, France’s national debt surpassed 3 trillion euros, equivalent to 114% of its gross domestic product. Debt repayments are projected to exceed 100 billion euros by 2029, a significant increase from 59 billion in 2024, according to the Cour des Comptes audit office. Concurrently, its budget deficit stands at nearly 169 billion euros, or 5.8% of its GDP. The European Union mandates a 3% limit on budget deficits for Eurozone members.
Bayrou aimed to reduce public borrowing from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 2.8% by 2029. The former Prime Minister’s proposals included measures such as a substantial freeze on welfare spending and the elimination of two public holidays. Bayrou had previously remarked that France’s younger generations are being saddled with years of debt to support older generations.
However, the plan was widely disliked, leading to its rejection with 364 lawmakers voting against it and 194 in favor. Cutting social expenditure in France carries political risks. Nationwide protests erupted in January 2023 after Macron raised the retirement age from 62 to 64.
Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right populist National Rally party, which initiated a no-confidence motion against Macron over the pension reform, declared on August 25 that her party would “never endorse a government whose decisions cause suffering to the French populace.”
France’s Political Instability
France has also experienced political upheaval since Macron dissolved parliament in June last year in an effort to counter the far-right surge and boost support for the center after the 2024 European Parliament election results. Instead, voters strengthened both far-right and left-wing parties. This led to a hung parliament divided among the National Rally, the left-wing New Popular Front, and Macron’s Renaissance bloc.
Macron appointed Michel Barnier as Prime Minister in September last year. This decision followed the Paris Summer Olympics and several days of deliberation among French politicians, culminating in a narrow parliamentary approval. That government fell in December due to a no-confidence vote over budgetary disagreements for the subsequent fiscal year, resulting in Barnier’s removal after a mere three months. The country’s parliament subsequently approved an “emergency law” to renew the previous year’s budget and avert a government shutdown.
Macron subsequently appointed Bayrou, a centrist, as Prime Minister in December, but he met a similar fate to Barnier relatively quickly.
The Path Ahead
Macron has indicated his intention to appoint a new Prime Minister, dismissing the possibility of new elections.
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen urged Macron to dissolve parliament again, a move she likely anticipates would benefit the National Rally in another election. “A significant nation like France cannot function with a ceremonial government, particularly in a turbulent and hazardous global environment,” she stated in the National Assembly following the no-confidence vote. Polls suggest that a majority of French citizens desire immediate parliamentary elections.
Macron has also consistently dismissed calls to resign from office before his term concludes in 2027, despite declining approval ratings.
However, Bayrou’s departure signals further turbulence for the French government. France’s far-left and far-right opposition parties collectively hold 330 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly, rendering consensus challenging. Without an absolute majority, Macron is reportedly seeking to forge alliances with the Socialists, while some speculate he might appoint a candidate supported by the left, especially given that his last two centrist appointments—Barnier and Bayrou—resulted in government collapses. Socialist Party President Boris Vallaud informed the National Assembly that he would be prepared to govern. Yet, such a move could face opposition from Les Républicains, a liberal-conservative party that is also part of the governing coalition.
The appointment of a Prime Minister will not, however, resolve the instability gripping the French parliament due to the absence of an absolute majority, particularly as the new leader would immediately face the challenge of passing a 2026 budget. French intelligence reportedly anticipates protests to occur this week, along with union-led hospital and rail strikes later this month.
Macron “must act swiftly to name a new Prime Minister before parliamentary and street unrest… escalates into a revolt against him,” Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at consultancy Eurasia Group, informed the newspaper. “He also needs to reassure markets that France can still hope to approve a deficit-reducing budget this year.”
Marie Demker, a professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, suggested in an article by Swedish national wire service, TT News Agency, that there could be broader implications: an unstable France could undermine the European Union’s capacity for decisive action, including on defense and economic policy in relation to the U.S.
