TLDR
- As of December 15, Bitcoin’s hashrate decreased by 4%, which is the most significant decline since April 2024.
- VanEck’s analysis indicates that in 90 days after a hashrate decline, Bitcoin has positive returns 65% of the time. In contrast, when the hashrate grows, the positive – return rate is 54%.
- Between late 2024 and mid – December 2025, the breakeven electricity costs for S19 XP miners dropped from $0.12 per kilowatt – hour to $0.077.
- From mid – November to mid – December, digital asset treasuries bought 42,000 BTC, a 4% monthly increase.
- Up to 13 countries, including Russia, Japan, and El Salvador, are providing support for Bitcoin mining operations.
By December 15, Bitcoin’s mining network witnessed a 4% decline in hashrate. This is the steepest drop since April 2024.
VanEck stated in a recent report that Bitcoin miner “capitulation” might signal a potential short – term price bottom. Data shows that as of Dec. 15, Bitcoin hashrate fell 4% over the past month, the largest one – month decline since April 2024. VanEck noted that since 2014, when…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain)
On Monday, VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush released a report analyzing this trend. They discovered historical patterns suggesting that miner capitulation could result in price increases.
The research reveals that when the hashrate declined over the previous 30 days, 90 – day forward returns were positive 65% of the time. When the hashrate increased during the same period, the positive – return rate was 54%.
This pattern becomes more pronounced over longer timeframes. In 77% of cases, negative 90 – day hashrate growth was followed by positive 180 – day Bitcoin returns, with an average gain of 72%.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $88,400. The cryptocurrency is nearly 30% lower than its all – time high of $126,080 reached on October 6.
Mining Profitability Faces Pressure
The breakeven electricity costs for the Bitmain S19 XP mining rig have dropped significantly. The costs went from $0.12 per kilowatt – hour in December 2024 to $0.077 per kilowatt – hour by mid – December 2025.
This represents a 36% reduction in breakeven prices, demonstrating the difficult situation miners are currently in.
The recent drop in hashrate seems to be related to shutdowns in China. Approximately 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity went offline in the country.
VanEck analysts estimate that this power could be shifted to AI applications. They project that up to 10% of Bitcoin’s hashrate could be redirected for this purpose.
On November 21, Bitcoin reached a low of around $81,000. The cryptocurrency has been volatile in recent weeks.
Institutional Buyers Step In
During the price dip, digital asset treasuries increased their holdings. These entities bought approximately 42,000 BTC from mid – November to mid – December.
This represents a 4% month – on – month increase. Their total holdings now stand at about 1.09 million BTC.
This buying activity is the largest monthly purchase since mid – July to mid – August 2025. During that earlier period, treasuries added more than 128,000 BTC.
VanEck anticipates that these entities will change their funding approach. The firm predicts that they will shift from common stock issuance to preference share sales to finance future Bitcoin purchases.
Multiple countries continue to support Bitcoin mining operations. VanEck estimates that up to 13 nations are backing mining activities.
The list includes Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya, and Japan. These countries come from diverse geographical regions and have different economic profiles.
