TLDR
- Bitcoin inched closer to $68,000 during Asian trading on Friday following a volatile week
- The Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes revealed policymakers were divided on rates, with some indicating rate hikes could resurface if inflation remained elevated
- U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions further fueled risk-averse sentiment, pushing gold close to $5,000
- Large Bitcoin holders channeled record inflows to Binance, a pattern historically indicative of selling into upward momentum
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $166 million in outflows on February 19, marking three consecutive days of net outflows
Bitcoin advanced toward $68,000 during Asia’s Friday morning trading, bouncing back from a turbulent week in crypto markets
The rebound was widespread. XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano each gained up to 2%. Ether was the exception, dropping below $2,000 as traders viewed that level as a point to defend rather than advance from.
On Thursday, Bitcoin had already increased by 1.1% to $66,989, but gains were constrained by a more cautious interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes
The minutes indicated Fed policymakers were becoming more divided. Some suggested rate hikes could return if inflation remained persistently above target. Others stated cuts would only resume if inflation continued to fall as anticipated.
Bear Market Progress:
▓▓▓░░░░░░░ 33.0%
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital)
That language put rate hikes back on the table for some traders, even if they’re not the base case.
“The key shift isn’t that hikes are suddenly the base case, but that policymakers explicitly put them back on the table,” said Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures. “That repricing has supported the dollar and tightened financial conditions at the margin.”
The dollar strengthened following the Fed minutes, pulling some traders away from risk assets like Bitcoin.
ETF Outflows Add Pressure
Spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $166 million in net outflows on February 19, the third consecutive day of outflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw $130 million in outflows on the same day, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for $96.80 million of that total.
On Feb. 19 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $166 million, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw total net outflows of $130 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA leading at $96.80 million in net outflows.
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain)
These numbers reflect a broader pullback in institutional appetite for crypto exposure in the short term.
Big Holders Signal Possible Selling
On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals inflows from large holders to Binance have reached record levels. This pattern has historically preceded periods of more significant spot selling.
Research firm K33 has drawn comparisons between current market conditions and the later stages of the 2022 bear market, which led into a long period of sideways consolidation.
Geopolitics added another layer of caution. President Trump stated he would allow 10 to 15 days for nuclear talks with Iran, while U.S. forces were reportedly reinforced in the region. Gold remained steady near $5,000 an ounce as investors sought safer havens.
Get ready for the final dump to $50,000.
This chart has never been wrong before, and Bitcoin will bottom out in 12 days.
Ignore it if you want, but don’t act like我didn’t warn you.
— Chiefy (@0xChiefy)
FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich stated that the situation increases the likelihood of a retest of local lows last observed in the second half of 2024.
Bitcoin inflows from large holders to Binance hitting record levels remains the most closely monitored near-term signal ahead of the weekend.
