Arthur Hayes Forecasts Bitcoin’s Price: Anticipates a Dip to $60,000 Preceding a Surge to $250,000

TLDR

• Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 1.5% last week, contrasting with the S&P 500’s roughly 10% drop over two days.
• Charles Schwab is slated to introduce direct spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the first half of 2026.
• Arthur Hayes has cautioned that Bitcoin might fall below $60,000 before embarking on a rally to $250,000.
• One bearish chart analyst predicts a potential Bitcoin crash to the $12,000–$13,000 range by mid-2027.
• Research conducted post-crisis indicates that Bitcoin has historically outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 within a 60-day timeframe.

(SeaPRwire) –   Bitcoin experienced a more stable week compared to the stock market. While the S&P 500 saw a decrease of around 10% within a two-day period, Bitcoin’s decline was only about 1.5%. This disparity has prompted some investors to reconsider their view on cryptocurrencies.

The stock market’s downturn was triggered by tariff announcements from President Trump, which unsettled global markets. Bitcoin largely remained above $66,000 during this period, recovering to approximately $67,300 as equities continued to decline.

Charles Schwab, which manages close to $12 trillion in client assets, has announced its intention to launch direct spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The new “Schwab Crypto” account is anticipated to be available in the first half of 2026.

This offering differs from exchange-traded funds, as customers will have the ability to hold cryptocurrencies within the same account as their traditional stocks and bonds.

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev also garnered attention this week, describing market closing times as “a legacy design choice” and suggesting that tokenization could enable markets to function more akin to the internet.

Hayes Says Wait for the Fed

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, is currently not optimistic about the market. In a discussion on the Coin Stories podcast, he stated that he would not invest his entire capital into Bitcoin at this juncture.

His reasoning is that the Federal Reserve has not yet been compelled to increase liquidity. Hayes posits that tariffs will eventually lead to voter dissatisfaction, prompting the U.S. to implement capital controls.

He believes these capital controls would serve as a significant catalyst for Bitcoin, and he maintains a long-term price objective of $250,000 to $750,000 for Bitcoin by the conclusion of the current cycle.

However, he also cautioned that an extended U.S.-Iran conflict could cause Bitcoin to drop below $60,000 in the near term. He also identified AI-driven job losses as a potential risk that could precipitate a deflationary credit crisis.

What the Data Shows

Research conducted by Mercado Bitcoin examined the 60 days following major global disruptions, including past tariff escalations and the COVID-19 outbreak. The findings revealed that Bitcoin consistently outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 during these periods.

Bitcoin often experiences an initial decline during a crisis as investors shift to cash. However, it has historically shown a faster and stronger recovery compared to traditional assets.

Not all analysts anticipate an imminent bottom. A chartist known as King of the Charts forecasts Bitcoin to bottom out between $51,000 and $53,000, followed by an 80% to 90% crash to approximately $12,000 by mid-2027.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has remained in the “Extreme Fear” zone for several weeks, with readings close to single digits.

Hayes, in a separate conversation with David Lin, suggested that simply acquiring Bitcoin is the most effective strategy to stay ahead of fiat currency debasement, particularly now that stock picking has become more challenging.

The launch by Schwab is scheduled for the first half of 2026.