Bitcoin Price Faces Key Support as Rising Yields and Oil Prices Weigh In – What’s Next?

TLDR

• Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,126 and is poised to register its sixth straight negative monthly close for March.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are getting close to 5%, a level that has historically dragged BTC prices down.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $296 million in weekly outflows, ending a four-week run of inflows.
• Brent crude oil has jumped from roughly $75 to around $106 this month, stoking worries about inflation.
• Bitcoin is trading within a range of $65,000 to $72,000, as investors are steering clear of directional bets.

(SeaPRwire) –   Bitcoin is facing downward pressure due to a combination of rising U.S. bond yields, spiking oil prices, and a shift in ETF flows that are all weighing on its value. At the time of writing, BTC was trading around $66,126 and is on track for a bearish monthly finish.

Bitcoin started March with strong momentum, reaching a peak of $76,000 earlier in the month. This upward movement was partially driven by positive sentiment around geopolitical events involving the U.S., Iran, and Gulf countries. However, macroeconomic challenges have since taken center stage.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is now a critical point of interest for traders. It seems to be consolidating in a bullish flag pattern, which typically indicates potential for further gains. A confirmed breakout might drive yields up to 5% or more—levels not seen since 2023.

Higher yields increase the appeal of fixed-income assets, diverting capital from riskier investments such as Bitcoin. Historical data supports this: from October 2021 to December 2022, yields climbed from 1.45% to 3.90% while BTC dropped from $67,000 to $16,256.

Analysts predict that if yields hit 5%, Bitcoin might retrace to a demand zone ranging from $58,632 to $55,302.

ETF Outflows Signal Shift in Sentiment

Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a four-week inflow streak, recording $296.18 million in net outflows for the week ending Friday. This came after over $2.2 billion in total inflows during the previous four weeks.

Thursday and Friday combined saw more than $396 million in withdrawals. Friday’s one-day outflow of $225.48 million was the biggest since March 3.

The total net assets of spot Bitcoin ETFs decreased to $84.77 billion from over $90 billion a week prior. Weekly trading volume also declined to $14.26 billion, down from $25.87 billion earlier in March.

A Bitunix analyst characterized the current market environment as “surface stability, internal imbalance.” They observed that Bitcoin is acting less like an asset primed for a breakout and more as a mirror of liquidity conditions. “Capital is not leaving the market, but it’s also not willing to take directional risks,” the analyst stated.

Oil Prices Add to Inflation Pressure

Oil prices have risen dramatically this month. Brent crude has gone up from about $75 at the beginning of March to roughly $106. WTI crude was around $101 at the time of writing.

This price increase is tied to supply issues and geopolitical tensions, including worries about the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices lower the chances of interest rate cuts in the near future, maintaining tight financial conditions.

Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw outflows for the second consecutive week, with $206.58 million in weekly net outflows.

Get ready for a crazy move in Bitcoin.

If BTC closes March in the red, this will be the 6th consecutive red monthly close.

This has only happened once in Bitcoin’s history, in the year 2018.

But the crazy part is that the last time this happened, BTC pumped 317% from $3,349 to… pic.twitter.com/5N7VEVn6Lw

— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) March 29, 2026

Crypto analyst Ash Crypto pointed out on X that if BTC ends March with a negative close, it will be the sixth straight month of red closes—an event that has only occurred once before in Bitcoin’s history, back in 2018.

As per the most recent data, cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $55.93 billion.