TLDR

  • Bitcoin has declined 46% from its record peak of $126,000, sparking worries of a possible bear market.
  • Even with the slump, numerous analysts maintain that Bitcoin is still within a broader bull market and experiencing a pullback.
  • XWIN Research contends that Bitcoin might have already stepped into the initial phase of a bear market, citing deteriorating investor confidence.
  • The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 14, indicating extreme fear, a level comparable to prior bear market stages.
  • Data on capital movements and on-chain profits show persistent selling pressure, hinting at bearish market dynamics.

The price of Bitcoin has been in a sustained decline for five straight months, falling 46% from its all-time high of $126,000. Although this downturn has occurred, many analysts still categorize the price action as a correction in a larger bull cycle. Nonetheless, information from research firm XWIN contests this outlook, proposing that Bitcoin could be moving into an early bear market stage.

Analysts Split on Bitcoin’s Market Direction

Even following Bitcoin’s substantial decrease, many sector specialists think the market is only seeing a standard correction. They consider the drop as a component of a continuing bull market cycle, anticipating that values will rebound in time. These experts posit that Bitcoin remains in the preliminary part of a more significant upward trajectory and that the present slump does not denote a complete bear market.

Conversely, research firm XWIN holds a different view. Based on their assessment, the continuing price fall marks the start of an early bear market period. XWIN references the Fear & Greed Index, presently at 14, which denotes extreme fear in the investor base, akin to times before previous major bear markets. The firm also emphasizes capital flow figures and on-chain profit data, both of which signal fading investor optimism and increasing sell-side pressure.

Bitcoin Price Dynamics and Historical Context

XWIN Research also makes parallels with historical market environments. The firm observes that Bitcoin’s drop echoes the trends witnessed in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. In 2024, Bitcoin attracted $10 billion in inflows, which grew its market capitalization, yet in 2025, even with $300 billion in inflows, its market cap shrank. This change implies that Bitcoin’s recent price performance represents more than a simple bull market correction.

Furthermore, the firm has detected an increase in net realized losses, which lately reached $13.6 billion. This amount matches the peaks observed in the 2022 bear market. XWIN’s interpretation suggests these losses, combined with structural selling pressure, could signal a bear market, although Bitcoin’s price in nominal terms is still above levels seen in earlier bear market periods.

The characteristics of Bitcoin’s price movement also echo past market declines. Bitcoin has now posted losses for four months in a row, sinking 41% over this span. This pattern is similar to the 2018 bear market, where comparable declines occurred.

In spite of these indicators, some analysts stay hopeful, projecting a bull market revival soon. As an instance, investor Mr. Crypto Whale predicts a surge starting in March 2026, with Bitcoin achieving a fresh all-time high of $215,000 by May. However, this is still conjecture, as Bitcoin’s present price of $67,900 and the overall market mood suggest the cryptocurrency might already be shifting into a bear market phase.