TLDR
- Warren Lau, an analyst at Aletheia Capital, boosted his price target for Micron from $315 to $650—representing a 106% rise and setting a new record high among Wall Street analysts
- The optimistic outlook is grounded in robust AI-fueled demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and constrained supply expected through 2026 to 2027
- Lau doubled his earnings projections for Micron’s FY26 and tripled those for FY27
- Micron is scheduled to release its Q2 FY26 earnings on March 18, with Wall Street anticipating earnings per share (EPS) of $8.52 on $18.85 billion in revenue
- Shipments of HBM4 have started earlier than planned, with mass production targeted for 2026 to match the launch of next-generation NVIDIA and AMD GPUs
Micron Technology’s (MU) stock has been drawing significant interest on Wall Street. Warren Lau, an analyst at Aletheia Capital, has increased his price target for MU to $650—the highest among all Wall Street analysts—up from his prior target of $315. This 106% surge in the target suggests an approximate 75.5% upside from the stock’s current price.
Lau revised his forecasts upward after determining that AI-driven demand for memory chips is both stronger and more long-lasting than he had previously thought. He doubled his earnings estimates for FY26 and tripled those for FY27—a rare and bold adjustment.
At the heart of the bullish argument is high-bandwidth memory (HBM). HBM supply is said to be fully booked through 2026, and Micron’s management has forecast strong margins in the upcoming quarters. Lau views this shortage as a catalyst for higher average selling prices deep into 2027.
The analyst also highlighted the growth of agentic AI—systems that act independently—as a new source of demand. These applications need not only HBM but also server DRAM, SRAM, and CXL-based memory systems, expanding the revenue potential for .
From a supply perspective, the situation appears constrained for the next several years. New DRAM and NAND production capacity is expected to stay limited through 2026 and 2027, with new NAND cleanrooms not likely to come online before 2028. Limited supply combined with growing demand is a clear formula for pricing power.
Lau also identified Micron’s automotive division as a growth engine. The average memory content per vehicle is expected to almost triple by 2026, fueled by generative AI uses in self-driving cars.
HBM4 Ahead of Schedule
Micron has already started shipping HBM4 earlier than planned, with mass production aimed for 2026. This timing matches and AMD’s next-gen GPU releases, putting Micron in a position to secure premium prices during that cycle.
Lau thinks Micron could become one of the world’s top chip suppliers in the next few years. He estimates the company will generate between $150 billion and $200 billion in combined cash flow for FY26 and FY27.
Micron is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37.9, with revenue growth of 45.4% over the past twelve months and an operating margin of 32.5%.
Risks Still on the Table
The outlook isn’t entirely positive. Lau noted risks such as shifts in demand, execution difficulties, and geopolitical tensions. Historically, Micron has also experienced severe drops in its stock price—82% during the Dot-Com bubble burst and 88% in the Global Financial Crisis.
More recent risks include worries about peak-cycle valuations, executive exits, and ongoing securities fraud lawsuits.
The wider Wall Street consensus on MU remains positive. Out of 28 analysts covering the stock, 27 have a Buy rating and one has a Hold. The average price target is $426.41, indicating an approximate 15% upside—far below Lau’s record-high $650 target.
Micron will announce its Q2 FY26 earnings on March 18. Wall Street expects EPS of $8.52 on revenue of $18.85 billion.
