TLDR
- Nvidia is in discussions with the Trump administration regarding export permits for H200 AI chips to Chinese firms, as the U.S. shows readiness to greenlight ByteDance’s acquisition while demanding stringent Know-Your-Customer protocols.
- Shares fell 1.4% to $177.74 amid ongoing talks, trading under critical moving averages of $182-$184, with the 200-day moving average around $168 providing support.
- Nvidia says it cannot independently agree to license terms and cautions that excessively strict conditions might drive Chinese customers to alternative chip vendors outside the U.S.
- China has given initial clearance to ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, and Deepseek for chip imports, though ultimate regulatory requirements are still under review.
- The Commerce Department’s January 15 rule mandates independent laboratory testing of chips and verification of thorough client vetting to block military usage.
Nvidia shares finished at $177.74 on February 5, declining 1.4% as regulatory ambiguity persists over H200 chip shipments to China. The semiconductor company continues to be engaged in discussions with the Trump administration concerning permit conditions that would permit Chinese technology leaders to acquire its cutting-edge AI equipment.
Approximately two weeks ago, the Trump administration signaled it would grant ByteDance permission to purchase H200 chips. Nevertheless, Nvidia has not consented to the suggested terms, specifically regarding Know-Your-Customer stipulations intended to block China’s military from obtaining the technology.
Nvidia stressed its role as a mediator between U.S. regulators and clients. The firm cannot single-handedly approve or decline license terms. “While KYC is crucial, KYC isn’t the problem,” a Nvidia spokesperson stated. “For U.S. businesses to secure any deals, the terms must be commercially viable; otherwise, the market will keep shifting to overseas options.”
The Commerce Department published a rule on January 15 that officially relaxed licensing policy for high-end AI chips. However, it included stringent demands. Applicants must verify that their clients will employ thorough vetting processes to stop unauthorized remote entry. They must also submit rosters of remote users connected to nations of concern such as Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela.
An independent U.S. laboratory must examine the chips prior to delivery to confirm they comply with specifications. This mandate is viewed as a system for the U.S. government to gather its 25% levy on transactions, a setup President Trump revealed in December.
Stock Trading Below Key Levels
Technically speaking, the stock continues to face downward pressure. Shares are trading under the 20-day moving average near $184 and the 50-day moving average around $182. Both thresholds serve as resistance areas, indicating that sellers dominate the immediate trend.
The 200-day moving average stands near $168. This mark constitutes essential medium-term support. As long as Nvidia stays above this range, the overall upward trajectory from last year stays preserved. A daily finish below $168 would indicate more significant trend weakening.
The Relative Strength Index lingers in the low 30s, nearing oversold levels but not yet validating a turnaround. Trading volume has decreased during the recent drop, suggesting the decline is corrective instead of driven by panic.
China Approval Process Moving Forward
China has provided initial clearance to ByteDance, Tencent, , and AI newcomer Deepseek for chip imports. Regulatory prerequisites for China’s authorizations are still being completed on their end.
This scenario marks another episode in the U.S.-China technology conflict. Trump’s December move to permit chip sales with a 25% share for the U.S. government attracted criticism from China hardliners. They see the policy as a national security threat and worry China will leverage the chips to enhance military strength.
Identical export terms apply to comparable chips from Advanced Micro Devices and Intel. Commerce Department protocols usually entail distributing pending permits to agencies such as State, Defense, and Energy departments. After they concur on terms, they’re forwarded to the applicant for input.
Near-Term Trading Range Expected
Over the near term, is likely to fluctuate between $170 and $185 while investors await regulatory resolution. Declines toward $168-$172 ought to draw purchasers, whereas advances toward $185 might encounter selling resistance from short-term speculators.
A move past $185 would need favorable developments on export authorizations or a wider recovery in AI equities. That could drive Nvidia toward the $195-$200 range.
According to one source, at least some chips will probably arrive in China before Trump’s anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April. The Commerce Department did not promptly reply to inquiries for comment. ByteDance could not be quickly contacted for comment.
