TLDR
- The Trump administration is developing new regulations that would mandate government authorization for nearly all international AI chip exports.
- A tiered licensing framework is being proposed, with the most rigorous requirements reserved for shipments involving 200,000 GPUs or more.
- Shares of both Nvidia and AMD had experienced slight declines this year prior to the emergence of this report.
- The significant financial impact is illustrated by Nvidia’s frozen China sales, which accounted for $17 billion in 2024.
- These regulations remain in draft form and are subject to potential modification or cancellation.
The Trump administration is formulating policies that could require Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices to obtain U.S. government approval before exporting AI chips to almost any international destination.
According to reports from Bloomberg and Reuters, the proposed measures would establish a tiered licensing system categorized by shipment volume. Small-scale orders of fewer than 1,000 units would undergo a standard review, while mid-sized shipments would require pre-clearance. Large-scale deployments of 200,000 chips or more would necessitate security assurances and commitments from the recipient nation to invest in domestic U.S. AI infrastructure.
These restrictions would not apply to nations already subject to existing bans on advanced U.S. chip imports, such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
Neither Nvidia nor AMD provided comments by the time of publication. In early Friday trading, Nvidia shares were down approximately 1.1%, while AMD shares fell by about 1.2%.
Both companies have faced stock pressure throughout the year, as investor enthusiasm for AI-focused equities has waned amid concerns regarding tech sector spending, rising memory costs, and a broader market rotation toward value stocks.
What Happened With China Shows the Risk
Nvidia’s experience in China highlights the potential stakes. In April 2025, the Trump administration halted chip exports to China for a regulatory review, prompting China to retaliate by prohibiting foreign-made chips in government-affiliated data centers.
Nearly a year later, those exports have yet to resume. In 2024, Nvidia’s chip sales to China reached $17 billion, representing roughly 13% of its total revenue.
Nvidia reported $216 billion in annual revenue last year, a 65% increase year-over-year, while AMD reported $35 billion, a 34% rise. Both firms rely heavily on international demand to sustain such growth.
The Middle East Deal Is Not a Reassuring Example
The Commerce Department has cited recent AI chip agreements in the Middle East as a template for this new strategy. Last year, the U.S. approved the sale of up to 70,000 advanced chips to entities in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
However, those transactions required months of negotiation regarding security protocols and U.S. investment pledges. This volume is modest compared to the millions of chips that Nvidia and AMD typically supply to major U.S. technology firms.
If a similar approval mandate is applied to all international sales, it could impede access to the projected $1.5 trillion “sovereign AI” sector, where nations are seeking to develop their own national AI capabilities.
The Rules Are Not Final Yet
The Commerce Department has indicated it is not reverting to the “AI diffusion” framework previously proposed by the Biden administration, which would have directly capped global chip shipments.
The proposed regulations are not yet finalized and remain subject to change or total abandonment prior to implementation.
