TLDR

  • Solana (SOL) saw an 8.53% increase, reaching $84.73 on February 14, with a trading volume of $6.32 billion and a market capitalization of $48.12 billion.
  • Past fractal patterns indicate that SOL experienced a 24,234% surge from $1.07 to $260 between 2020 and 2021, followed by a 3,700% rise from $7.78 to $295 from 2022 to 2025.
  • Analysts suggest a potential accumulation zone between $30 and $50 if the price continues to fall, with long-term price targets of $500 to $1,000 if historical patterns repeat.
  • Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) reached an all-time high of $80 million, and the network is processing approximately $100 million in daily volume for memecoin launchpads.
  • SOL has experienced a 31% decline in 2026 and is trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in oversold territory, a clear bullish divergence has not yet emerged.

Solana’s price rose by 8.53% to $84.73 on February 14, accompanied by $6.32 billion in trading volume. The token’s market cap is currently $48.12 billion, representing 2.01% of the overall cryptocurrency market.

Solana (SOL) Price

Despite the recent price increase, SOL has seen a 31% decrease since the beginning of 2026, making it one of the underperforming major cryptocurrencies this year.

On-chain metrics for the network present a different picture. Solana’s DeFi total value locked (TVL) has reached a new all-time high of $80 million, fueled by substantial stablecoin inflows.

Projects involving real-world assets (RWAs) on Solana have also achieved new peaks. The high liquidity and increasing TVL suggest that investors are continuing to commit capital to the network.

Solana
Source: DefiLlama

Technical Analysis Suggests Accumulation Phase

Analysts are examining historical fractal patterns from previous Solana cycles. During Cycle 1, from 2020 to 2021, SOL surged from $1.07 to $260, a gain of 24,234%, before crashing by 97% to $7.78.

In Cycle 2, spanning from 2022 to 2025, Solana increased by 3,700% from $7.78 to $295. The cryptocurrency is currently approximately 77% below its peak.

Crypto analyst CryptoPatel suggests that if the historical pattern persists, the price could drop to the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci levels, placing SOL in an accumulation zone between $30 and $50.

Should this pattern repeat, long-term price targets could range from $500 to $1,000. However, these projections are contingent on the continuation of historical patterns and are not guaranteed predictions.

Recent price action has shown a strong bottoming candle with a long lower wick, a formation that typically indicates buying pressure at lower price levels.

SOL is currently positioned at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which aligns with a high-volume area between the S1 and S2 pivot points. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in oversold territory.

The cryptocurrency remains below its daily pivot point and its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicating that the overall trend is still bearish.

Surge in Memecoin Activity on the Network

Solana’s memecoin launchpads have processed nearly $100 million in daily volume. According to Dune Analytics data, new token launches have averaged 30,000 per day this week.

memecoins
Source: Dune

The market capitalization of the memecoin sector has decreased by 3.5% to $30.2 billion over the last 30 days. During the same period, SOL dropped by 8.5%, indicating that memecoins have outperformed the native token.

Pippin (PIPPIN) experienced a surge of over 100% in a single week, surpassing a market cap of $535 million. In contrast, established memecoins such as Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) saw declines.

High levels of memecoin activity often reflect short-term speculative trading rather than sustained long-term conviction. The current memecoin frenzy may be obscuring the network’s underlying fundamental strength.

Capital continues to flow into the DeFi ecosystem despite the price weakness. The divergence between price performance and on-chain activity has raised questions about whether SOL is undervalued.

When prices deviate from fundamentals, it can suggest that investors maintain confidence in the network’s long-term potential. However, the speculative nature of memecoins complicates this interpretation.

Solana facilitated 30,000 new token launches daily this week, with memecoin launchpads handling $100 million in daily volume.