Study Reveals Bitcoin Posts Stronger Gains Than Gold and S&P 500 Following Global Shocks

TLDR

• Research from Mercado Bitcoin indicates that Bitcoin outperforms both gold and the S&P 500 in the 60-day period following significant global disturbances.
• Following the 2025 tariff announcement by Trump, Bitcoin surged 24%, outpacing gold’s 8% gain and the S&P 500’s 4% increase.
• Amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, Bitcoin has gained 2.2%, whereas gold and the S&P 500 have declined by 11% and 4.4%, respectively.
• In March, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.32 billion in inflows, while gold ETFs experienced $2.92 billion in outflows.
• According to ETF expert James Seyffart, Bitcoin ETFs are projected to eventually exceed the size of gold ETFs.

(SeaPRwire) –   A study conducted by the Brazilian cryptocurrency exchange Mercado Bitcoin reveals that Bitcoin typically demonstrates superior returns compared to gold and the S&P 500 in the two months succeeding major international crises.

Rony Szuster, head of research at Mercado Bitcoin, led the study, which examined 60-day intervals following geopolitical and economic shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. tariff hikes.

Following the Trump administration’s implementation of broad tariffs in April 2025, Bitcoin appreciated by 24% over the subsequent 60 days, while gold rose 8% and the S&P 500 saw a modest 4% gain during the same timeframe.

A comparable trend was observed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, where Bitcoin increased by 21%, outperforming both gold and the S&P 500.

Szuster cautioned against evaluating Bitcoin’s performance too soon after a crisis, noting, “It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends.”

He explained that investors frequently liquidate assets rapidly during crises to secure liquidity, which can temporarily suppress even traditional safe-haven assets.

Bitcoin Holds Steady During U.S.-Iran Conflict

This trend appears to be repeating during the current U.S.-Iran conflict, with Bitcoin rising approximately 2.2%, climbing from about $65,800 to $67,300.

Conversely, gold—traditionally viewed as a safe haven—has retreated by roughly 11% during the same period, and the S&P 500 has dropped 4.4%, marking its most significant monthly decline since 2022.

Szuster highlighted that despite its characteristic volatility, Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset over the last decade.

Bitcoin ETFs Draw Investor Interest Away From Gold

During an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast, ETF analyst James Seyffart suggested that Bitcoin ETFs could eventually surpass gold ETFs in total assets under management.

“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart remarked, citing Bitcoin’s utility as digital gold, a store of value, a growth asset, and a tool for portfolio diversification.

“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he added.

Recent data on fund flows supports this shift in investor sentiment. In March, U.S. gold ETFs saw net outflows totaling $2.92 billion, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs secured $1.32 billion in net inflows.

Notably, the primary U.S. gold ETF experienced a $3 billion outflow on March 4, representing its largest single-day withdrawal in over two years.

Both assets have declined over the past 30 days, with Bitcoin down roughly 8% and gold down about 8.25%, indicating that they have largely moved in tandem despite the divergence in ETF flows.

In December 2025, Chris Kuiper, an analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, observed that gold and Bitcoin have historically alternated in terms of outperformance.