Tesla (TSLA) Stock Nears 8th Consecutive Weekly Loss as Deliveries Disappoint

TLDR

• Tesla announced 358,023 electric vehicle deliveries for the first quarter of 2026, falling short of the 370,000 projection from Wall Street analysts.
• The automaker’s shares have dropped 23% year-to-date, and are on pace to record an eighth consecutive week of losses.
• Tesla manufactured 408,300 vehicles in the quarter but only delivered 358,023 units, leading to the largest unsold inventory backlog in the company’s history.
• Options trading activity that previously propped up the stock has been declining throughout 2026.
• Analysts forecast Tesla will report a negative free cash flow of more than $6 billion for the full year.

(SeaPRwire) –   Tesla failed to meet electric vehicle delivery expectations again in Q1 2026, and it is facing a coinciding inventory issue this time around.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

The company handed over 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter, coming in below the 370,000 figure Wall Street had forecast. While this marks a nominal 6% increase from Q1 2025, that comparison is hardly positive — Q1 2025 deliveries had already fallen 13% year over year.

Tesla built 408,300 vehicles in the quarter but only moved 358,023 of them. The roughly 50,000-unit gap makes up the largest unsold vehicle backlog the company has ever recorded.

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman flagged the growing inventory as a drag on free cash flow, as the stock of unsold cars locks up capital until the vehicles are purchased by customers.

Free Cash Flow Faces Mounting Pressure

The timing of the inventory buildup makes the situation even more challenging. Tesla has already raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $20 billion, up from $8.5 billion in 2025. Most of that budget is allocated to artificial intelligence and humanoid robot production initiatives.

Analysts tracked by Visible Alpha expect Tesla to post a negative free cash flow of more than $6 billion this year, and over $1.2 billion in 2027.

William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer noted “global EV demand ex-China remains under pressure,” going on to add that Tesla is “actively sacrificing its EV business in favor of a fully autonomous future.”

The broader EV market has also provided no relief. Rising competition, Trump administration tariffs, and the elimination of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit have all weighed on demand across the entire sector.

The Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 97% of all Q1 deliveries, highlighting just how heavily the company still relies on those two vehicle lines.

Options-Driven Support Is Waning

Outside of core business fundamentals, another dynamic is impacting performance. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson has been monitoring Tesla’s options activity, and found that retail traders have scaled back on aggressive call buying in 2026.

In prior years, heavy call buying forced brokers to hedge their positions by purchasing the underlying stock. That buying pressure created what traders call a “gamma squeeze,” a feedback loop that pushed the stock price higher regardless of the company’s actual operational performance.

Johnson’s view is that this mechanical support has been fading, leaving the stock far more exposed to its underlying fundamentals. He rates Tesla a Sell with a $25.28 price target — far below the average analyst target and well outside mainstream consensus.

Even so, his observation about options flow is a notable technical factor worth considering.

Ahead of Friday’s trading session, Tesla was changing hands at $344.82 in premarket, down roughly 0.2%. The stock is valued at approximately 170 times estimated 2026 earnings.

Total 2025 deliveries came in at 1.64 million, down from the 1.79 million units recorded in 2024.