TLDR
- From its all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025, XRP declined by 61%, reaching a 15 – month low of $1.11 on February 5, 2026.
- The crash on February 5 enabled XRP to retest the upper trendline of a multi – year symmetrical triangle that it broke out of in November 2024.
- XRP rebounded from $1.11 and is now trading at around $1.42, validating a successful backtest of the breakout.
- Fibonacci extension levels indicate a near – term target of $5 and an ultimate target of $19.40 on the monthly chart.
- Analysts recognize the $1.30–$1.80 range as a historically under – developed area where XRP might be establishing a base.
Since hitting an all – time high of $3.66 in July 2025, XRP has been on a downward trend. After that peak, the token has had six monthly red candles out of seven, dropping by more than 61%.
The selling pressure increased at the beginning of this month. On February 5, 2026, XRP dropped by over 19% in a single day, which was its largest intraday decline since May 2021, reaching a 15 – month low of $1.11.
Although the crash was severe, it proved to be technically significant.
XRP broke out of a multi – year symmetrical triangle in November 2024. This triangle had been taking shape since January 2018, when XRP fell from a high of $3.31. For nearly eight years, the price formed lower highs and lower lows within that pattern.
BOOM
double bullish signal on
✓ 1M chart successful breakout & backtest just happened.
✓ From the high to the recent low fib extension suggests a 19.40$ price target.
You are not bullish enough even after watching this simple analysis
— XRP CAPTAIN (@UniverseTwenty)
The breakout in November 2024 was sparked by a surge from $0.50 to above $2, which continued into 2025 and drove XRP to its all – time high of $3.66.
The drop from that high back to $1.11 brought XRP precisely to the upper trendline of the same triangle, the level it had broken above in late 2024.
Backtest Confirmed
According to market commentator XRP Captain, this retest of the $1.11 level confirmed that the triangle breakout is holding. It bounced back from that level and is now trading around $1.42.
In technical analysis, a successful backtest of a breakout level is regarded as evidence that the upward movement had real strength.
From this point, Fibonacci extension levels define the next potential price targets. The 1.272 extension is around $5, just above the previous all – time high of $3.66. The 2.618 extension is at $19.40, a level that would require a 1,266% rally from current prices.
The $1.30–$1.80 Zone
Analyst Austin_XRPL has pointed out a distinct structural aspect. When looking at XRP’s entire price history, every major price zone has experienced extended consolidation, except for one.
What if XRP is simply building its final base…
Filling its final inefficient range…
Before it can finally enter expansion and never look back?
Look at the weekly structure.
Every major price zone in XRP history has built a base:
$0.15–$0.30 → 2 years of price action…
— Austin (@Austin_XRPL)
The $1.30 to $1.80 range was quickly passed through during previous rallies, leaving little trading history or established support.
Austin describes this as an inefficient range. Recent weekly price movements show XRP trading within this range, which he interprets as the market filling that gap and building a base.
XRP is currently trading at $1.42, within that range.
