TLDR
- Zealand Pharma’s Phase 2 study of petrelintide reported a 10.7% reduction in body weight at 42 weeks, missing the 12–15% range anticipated by analysts.
- Financial institutions, including UBS, Barclays, Jefferies, and JPMorgan, characterized the results as underwhelming.
- Cantor Fitzgerald shifted its rating on the stock from Overweight to Neutral.
- Competitors such as Novo Nordisk’s cagrilintide and Eli Lilly’s eloralintide are currently viewed as more formidable alternatives in the market.
- The absence of a clear dose-response relationship across the highest dosage cohorts has sparked concerns regarding the drug’s potential in Phase 3 trials.
Shares of Zealand Pharma (ZEAL) plummeted more than 32% on Friday following the release of Phase 2 clinical trial results for its obesity treatment, petrelintide, which failed to meet Wall Street’s projections.
The ZUPREME-1 study, conducted in collaboration with Roche, evaluated petrelintide in adults who are overweight or obese but do not have type 2 diabetes. On an efficacy estimand basis, the highest dosage resulted in an average body weight loss of 10.7% by the 42nd week.
While the study achieved its primary endpoint by demonstrating statistically significant weight loss compared to a placebo across all dosage levels at 28 weeks, the primary results failed to satisfy investor expectations.
Market analysts had projected weight loss figures between 12% and 15% to establish the drug’s competitive standing. The actual 10.7% outcome fell short of this benchmark.
Analyst Sophia Graeff Buhl Nielsen noted that the findings “fall slightly short of expectations,” though she added that there is still “scope for an attractive mid-teens weight loss profile to be achieved in Phase 3,” particularly if the study recruits a higher proportion of female participants, who demonstrated more robust responses.
Jefferies described the data as disappointing, noting it fell below both their 13–15% forecast and the buy-side expectation of over 15%. Analyst Lucy Codrington remarked that while petrelintide offers “Wegovy-like efficacy, but with placebo-like tolerability,” it is likely “2nd-best to LLY’s elora for now.”
The drug’s tolerability was a notable strength; the highest-dose group experienced minimal gastrointestinal side effects and no vomiting, a profile described by Codrington as “placebo-like.” However, this benefit was insufficient to drive positive market sentiment.
Cantor Fitzgerald Downgrades to Neutral
Citing a lack of differentiation, Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded Zealand Pharma from Overweight to Neutral. The firm observed that petrelintide’s placebo-adjusted weight loss of approximately 9% at 42 weeks is comparable to Novo Nordisk’s cagrilintide and significantly trails Eli Lilly’s eloralintide.
Cantor expressed concern over the lack of a dose-response, suggesting there is no clear indication that weight loss efficacy will improve in later-stage testing. The firm now anticipates that petrelintide will achieve weight loss in the low teens, similar to cagrilintide.
With Eli Lilly already in Phase 3 with eloralintide and Novo Nordisk advancing cagrilintide monotherapy to Phase 3, Cantor suggested that petrelintide faces a difficult commercial path as a third-to-market product with limited unique advantages.
What’s Left to Watch
UBS observed that the trial results were “clearly at the lower end of expectations,” casting doubt on the drug’s viability as a monotherapy. Nevertheless, the bank suggested that a combination strategy—pairing petrelintide with a low dose of Roche’s CT-388—remains a “still viable option” due to the drug’s favorable tolerability.
Furthermore, the minimal variance in weight loss between the top dosage groups (ranging from 10.2% to 10.7%) led JPMorgan to suggest that higher doses may offer limited additional benefits.
Comprehensive trial results are slated for presentation at a scientific meeting later in 2026.
At the time of the last check, the stock was trading at $38.22, approximately 51% below its 52-week peak of $112.63.
