Arizona voters will have a crucial decision to make in November: whether to formally protect the right to abortion in the state constitution. This move, in a state considered pivotal in the presidential election, could have a significant impact on the already turbulent and historic race.
The Arizona secretary of state’s office confirmed to TIME that the measure will be on the November ballot, having certified over 577,971 signatures—well exceeding the necessary threshold. Dawn Penich, spokesperson for the coalition backing the initiative, Arizona for Abortion Access, states that they gathered the most signatures ever for a citizen initiative in state history, surpassing 820,000.
The coalition, including groups like the American Civil Liberties Union of Arizona and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona, celebrated the news. “The progress of our ballot initiative and the overwhelming support we’ve received demonstrate that Arizonans are tired of their rights being subject to the political whims of those in the legislature or the courts. They want to resolve this issue definitively for themselves through this citizen initiative process,” says Chris Love, spokesperson for the coalition’s campaign.
Currently, Arizona prohibits abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. This law, passed in 2022, includes exceptions for medical emergencies. Proposition 139, the November ballot measure, would legalize abortions until a fetus can survive outside the womb, typically around the 24th week of pregnancy. It would also include exceptions after this point if the pregnant person’s life is at risk or if their physical or mental health is in jeopardy. This amendment to the state constitution would prevent the state from banning or restricting access to abortion before viability. Other states like and have previously approved similar measures.
Opponents of the measure argue it goes too far, claiming that the is overly broad and would allow for the termination of viable pregnancies.
The presence of this abortion initiative on the November ballot could have political implications beyond reproductive rights in Arizona. In the presidential race, it highlights a key difference between , who played a central role in the Biden Administration’s messaging on reproductive rights, and , who appointed three of the Supreme Court Justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Other Democrats have made it a central theme of their 2024 campaigns, and states including Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, and South Dakota are also addressing abortion rights this year.
The issue’s impact on political races and voter turnout could be especially decisive in Arizona, a crucial battleground state in the 2024 election.
“Arizona is a swing state; our election outcomes are usually extremely close,” says Samara Klar, a political science professor at the University of Arizona. “We’re witnessing tiny margins of victory in high-profile elections and, frankly, in local elections as well. Therefore, having an issue on the ballot that motivates voters to come out is incredibly important.”
In other ballot initiatives related to abortion that have been put to voters since the U.S. Supreme Court significantly weakened the constitutional right to abortion in 2022, Americans have largely and the issue has generally benefited Democrats. “Having abortion on the ballot is beneficial for Democrats because it mobilizes the types of people who are likely to support Democratic candidates,” Klar says.
Some polls indicate support for abortion rights among Arizonans. In March, Klar collaborated with YouGov on a of 800 registered Arizona voters. Over 40% stated that abortion decisions should be left to a woman and her doctor, while approximately 25% supported a near-total abortion ban. A in May found that 65% of likely Arizona voters said they would vote “yes” on a ballot measure establishing a constitutional right to abortion in the state; 21% said they would vote against it.
Abortion policy in Arizona has been somewhat uncertain since the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in two years ago. In April, the Arizona Supreme Court an 1864 law that only allowed abortions to save the pregnant person’s life, with no exceptions for rape or incest. The Republican-controlled legislature then the law, leaving a 2022 statute banning abortions after 15 weeks in place.
“There’s been a lot of confusion about the legal status of abortion in Arizona,” Love says. “Enshrining this right in the constitution will give Arizona voters the certainty they need to understand their reproductive rights and, importantly, take control of those matters and make personal healthcare decisions with their families and medical providers.”
And as Arizona voters head to the polls, the abortion initiative “absolutely could make a difference” in the presidential race, Klar says. “This is a close state, a significant issue, and one that motivates voters.”
