A government shutdown has the potential to remove up to 750,000 federal employees from their positions daily, incurring an estimated $400 million in lost wages, as stated by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office in a .
The forecasts, communicated to legislators on Tuesday, underscore the gravity of a federal funding interruption that could commence as early as midnight, when current appropriations are slated to conclude. While a 2019 law guarantees federal employees receive retroactive pay once a shutdown concludes, the CBO cautioned that an extended halt in salaries could reverberate through households and local economies, curbing consumer spending and disrupting nationwide services.
Should lawmakers fail to reach an accord by midnight, the federal government will initiate its first shutdown in nearly seven years.
Under emergency protocols submitted to the Office of Management and Budget, agencies are prepared to furlough hundreds of thousands of staff members deemed nonessential. Furloughed employees are barred from performing their duties and typically do not receive back pay until funding is reinstated. However, the White House has indicated it might take more extreme measures during this shutdown than in previous instances. In a communication to agencies last week, the budget office instructed them to ready for potential layoffs if the stalemate persists. Trump, speaking on Tuesday, mentioned his Administration “may implement many” dismissals, assigning blame for the impasse to Democrats.
During the , which began during Trump’s initial term in 2018 and lasted for 34 days, approximately 380,000 federal workers were furloughed, while another 420,000 continued their work without pay. Nevertheless, that shutdown was only partial, as Congress had already funded several key departments, including Defense and Veterans Affairs. This time, virtually the entirety of the government would be impacted.
The CBO report warned that the broader economic ramifications of a shutdown would hinge on its duration and the Trump Administration’s decisions regarding which operations to continue. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, the U.S. economy experienced a permanent loss of roughly $3 billion, according to the CBO.
This confrontation occurs at a politically charged juncture between congressional leadership and the White House. Senate Democrats maintain they will not vote to extend government funding unless expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies, set to expire at year’s end, are preserved, and healthcare cuts enacted as part of Republicans’ extensive tax package this summer are reversed. Republicans, who hold a slim majority in the chamber, assert that Democrats are exploiting the deadline to force unrelated concessions.
“It is exclusively the President who can achieve this. We are aware that he directs affairs here,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer commented on Tuesday, accusing Trump of attempting to “intimidate” Democrats by refusing to negotiate.
While disputes over spending have become commonplace in Washington, a shutdown of this magnitude has not occurred since 2013, when approximately 850,000 federal employees were furloughed. Then, as now, federal workers emerged as the most apparent casualties of a political struggle far removed from their earnings and everyday lives.
