China’s population experienced a third consecutive year of decline in 2024, according to a government announcement on Friday. This further exacerbates the demographic challenges faced by the world’s second most populous nation, which is grappling with an aging population and a growing shortage of working-age individuals.
By the end of 2024, China’s population stood at 1.408 billion, a decrease of 1.39 million compared to the previous year.
This trend mirrors global patterns, particularly in East Asia, where countries like Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong have also witnessed sharp declines in birth rates. China joined the ranks of nations experiencing population decline three years ago, alongside Japan and much of Eastern Europe.
The underlying causes are largely similar across these nations: increasing living costs are prompting young people to delay or forgo marriage and childbirth, prioritizing education and career advancement. While life expectancy is increasing, it’s insufficient to offset the declining birth rate.
Nations with restrictive immigration policies, such as China, are especially vulnerable to these demographic shifts.
China, historically one of the world’s most populous countries, has maintained a substantial population despite facing numerous historical challenges, including invasions and natural disasters. Following World War II and the Communist Party’s rise to power in 1949, population growth accelerated, doubling in just three decades, even after the significant population losses during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
After the Cultural Revolution and Mao Zedong’s death, concerns about overpopulation led to the implementation of a stringent “one-child policy.” Although not a formal law, women required permission to have children, and violations could result in forced abortions, sterilizations, heavy fines, and the denial of identification for their children, effectively rendering them stateless.
Government efforts focused on rural areas, where a preference for male offspring was prevalent. Women faced pressure to prove their menstrual cycles, and propaganda promoted having fewer children.
Despite government efforts to combat sex-selective abortions, the widespread availability of abortions led to a thriving black market for illegal sonograms.
This has resulted in a significantly skewed sex ratio, with a substantial excess of males compared to females, potentially leading to social instability. The government reports a sex ratio of 104.34 men per 100 women, although independent estimates suggest a far greater imbalance.
The sharply declining birth rate is a more significant concern for the government. China’s total population decreased for the first time in decades in 2023, and India surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation that same year. A rapidly aging population, shrinking workforce, weakened consumer markets, and emigration are placing immense strain on the system.
While spending on military and infrastructure projects continues to rise, China’s social security system is struggling, with increasing numbers of citizens refusing to contribute to the underfunded pension system.
Over 20% of the population (310.3 million) is aged 60 or older. By 2035, this figure is projected to exceed 30%, prompting discussions about raising the retirement age, currently one of the lowest globally. Some schools and kindergartens are being repurposed as elderly care facilities due to declining student numbers.
These developments lend credence to the observation that China, while the world’s second-largest economy, may face significant challenges as it ages before achieving widespread prosperity.
Government incentives, such as cash payments for having up to three children and housing assistance, have had only limited and temporary success.
Meanwhile, China’s urbanization continues, with 10 million more people moving to cities in 2024, resulting in an urbanization rate of 67%, a near one percentage point increase from the previous year.