Trade wars typically involve one country imposing tariffs on another’s goods, prompting retaliatory tariffs in response.
This occurred between the U.S. and China after the Trump Administration’s 10% tariff on Chinese goods. China retaliated with tariffs, including a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and LNG, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large-engine vehicles. These tariffs could hinder U.S. exports to China due to increased product costs for Chinese buyers.
China’s retaliatory tariffs, effective February 10, are projected to disproportionately impact smaller towns in states like North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia—many of which supported President Trump, according to a Brookings Institution study.
“These global conflicts have significant local consequences,” notes Mark Muro, a senior fellow at Brookings Metro and a study author.
While major cities like Houston and Detroit may see substantial job losses, rural communities could experience a more severe impact due to the concentration of affected industries within their economies. For example, Sargent County, N.D., faces the potential loss of approximately 1,600 jobs, representing 59% of its employment. Other counties with potentially significant impacts include Gibson County, Ind.; Noble County, Ohio; and Irion County, Tex.
The study estimates that nearly two-thirds of jobs potentially affected by the retaliatory tariffs are located in counties that voted for Trump in the 2024 election. This contrasts sharply with the 2018 Chinese tariffs, which had a broader impact across both Republican and Democrat-leaning counties.
The Brookings study estimates between 400,000 and 700,000 U.S. jobs could be affected, spanning various sectors including automotive, petroleum, and construction equipment manufacturing. “Factory downsizing can significantly impact local employment,” explains Rob Maxim, a co-author of the Brookings study.
Research from January 2024 indicated that the 2018-2019 trade war negatively affected Republican areas, including the lower Mississippi Valley, Midwestern industrial states, and manufacturing-focused Southern states. However, Trump did not suffer politically. The research showed that residents in affected regions became less likely to identify as Democrats and more likely to vote for Trump in 2020. “Despite the failure to bring back jobs, voters in regions impacted by Chinese import competition in the 1990s and 2000s were particularly inclined to reward Trump’s tariff policy,” that research concluded.
Similar outcomes could occur in regions affected by the 2025 tariffs, suggests Brookings’ Maxim. “For some smaller communities, Trump’s appeal lies in his decisive action.”
West Virginia exemplifies this. While U.S. coal exports are not substantial, nearly half originate from the state. Consequently, local coal miners could be significantly affected by the Chinese tariffs, according to Chris Hamilton, president of the West Virginia Coal Association.
However, this won’t deter the association’s support for President Trump. The Trump Administration’s commitment to reversing policies aimed at phasing out coal from the U.S. power grid is expected to create job growth in the industry. “We fully support President Trump,” Hamilton told TIME, despite the trade war’s consequences.
