Donald Trump’s presidential campaign centered on a promise of unprecedented mass deportations. So far, his administration has significantly increased arrests of immigrants living within the United States by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Data indicates that interior enforcement efforts have more than doubled since Trump assumed office, leading to overcrowded immigration detention centers nationwide. These intensified ICE operations, targeting workplaces, courthouses, and homes, triggered protests in Los Angeles the previous week. Trump’s decision to deploy the California National Guard in response to these protests, against the wishes of state and local authorities, escalated tensions and resulted in violent clashes with law enforcement, according to local reports.
This increase in ICE arrests under Trump may be starting to translate into a rise in deportations. While the total number of deportations had remained relatively stable compared to the Biden administration, recent data suggests a sharp increase.
Here’s an analysis of the data revealing how the Trump Administration has rapidly transformed immigration enforcement and deportation practices.
ICE Arrests Have Soared Under Trump
During Trump’s initial six months, border apprehensions have decreased. Simultaneously, ICE arrests now account for a larger proportion of those held in immigration detention. Recent ICE data reveals a 25% increase in the average number of detainees since Trump took office.
This marks a significant departure from previous immigration enforcement strategies in the U.S. Under the Biden administration, most individuals in immigration detention had recently crossed the border and were apprehended by Customs and Border Patrol (CPB) agents. Detaining border crossers expedited their removal proceedings, leading to quicker deportations.
A primary factor driving this shift from CPB arrests is the decrease in illegal border crossings compared to most of the Biden era.
In a recent interview with TIME, Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, expressed his desire to double ICE’s detention capacity from 50,000 to 100,000 beds. Increased detention capacity could accelerate both ICE arrests and deportations.
Deportations Are Starting to Trend Higher
Trump told TIME last year that his goal was to deport 15 million people. He also indicated his willingness to use the military for this purpose, despite restrictions imposed by the Posse Comitatus Act. J.D. Vance suggested deporting “Let’s start with 1 million” in an interview with ABC News in August.
As of late April, the Administration reported deporting over 139,000 migrants, falling short of their ambitious targets. This shortfall highlights the difficulties associated with locating and removing individuals living within communities. However, the Department of Homeland Security shared updated figures with TIME on Tuesday, indicating more than 207,000 deportations, according to Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin. This represents a significant increase in deportations, possibly reflecting more widespread and intrusive actions by immigration officials.
While total deportations have remained relatively stable, with a slight increase, a growing proportion involves individuals arrested within the U.S. by ICE. In May, ICE accelerated the pace of removal flights, suggesting a potential for faster deportation rates in the coming months. The Trump administration has requested increased congressional funding for deportations and enhanced immigration enforcement. The latest version of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” allocates $168 billion for immigration and border enforcement, a five-fold increase compared to the current year’s $33 billion.
Finding countries willing to accept deportees poses a challenge. Trump has defied established norms and, according to some, violated laws by proposing sending deportees to a notorious prison in El Salvador and the U.S. military base at Guantánamo Bay in Cuba, while sending others to Panama and South Sudan. Homan told TIME the Administration is struggling to find countries to accept U.S. deportees.
Frustrated by the slower-than-desired increase in deportations, Trump officials are urging ICE and other government agencies to increase immigration arrests.
They are also encouraging migrants within the U.S. to voluntarily return to their home countries. Trump has offered $1,000 and a free commercial flight to those willing to “self-deport.” However, even with this incentive, departures haven’t met Trump’s promised pace.
Muzaffar Chishti, a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute, describes the Administration’s self-deportation campaign as unprecedented. “Once they realized that fast deportation is not an easy enterprise, they started selling the idea of self deportation at a scale of which probably has not been detected in our history,” he said.
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