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The wisdom of the all-but-certain government shutdown on the horizon hinges on a simple question: Was it worth it?
Democrats appear poised as they navigate toward another shutdown, this time tied to President Donald Trump’s broad immigration crackdown rather than the expiration of health insurance subsidies used by roughly 20 million Americans. Republicans seem equally unified in standing behind Trump’s policies—even after federal agents killed two Americans in Minneapolis.
The White House has publicly dismissed outrage over Trump’s tactics with the same unyielding indifference it showed last year when refusing to bend to public opinion supporting those Obamacare subsidies. Yet Trump allies have implored his advisers to scale back the excessive actions in Minnesota before they fully alienate voters ahead of midterm elections that Republicans are already bracing to lose poorly. Even within the MAGA sphere, there is unease over a Trumpist spectacle that now has a tangible death toll. To be clear, Trump has long enjoyed strong public support for tightening border security and deporting violent criminals, but he lacks anything close to that level of backing for raiding communities with armed agents carrying no ID or warrants.
As Washington hurtles toward another shutdown—its second in four months—the question of whether Democrats are making a shrewd move depends on whether the last shutdown was deemed a success for the minority party.
In the fall, when Congress faced the choice of extending Obamacare subsidies or letting health insurance costs soar for millions, polls indicated broad support for an extension, regardless of party. It was a textbook 80-20 issue, an obvious rationale for Democrats to step in and shut down the government unless the funds were extended, and a winning issue for the minority party on a topic most closely tied to their brand.
Republicans held firm, and Democrats, after 43 days, acknowledged they could not outlast Trump’s stubbornness.
Proponents of the strategy will note that Republicans bore the brunt of blame for that standoff. Critics will point out Democrats have nothing to show for the prolonged drama—the subsidies are now gone. Still, they are on the verge of deploying the same playbook again.
But the polling central to this current spending fight differs from the Obamacare issue, which had support from about two-thirds of adults. The underlying issue this week—ICE and its tactics—is trending in Democrats’ favor but remains far less broadly popular, with a wider partisan divide.
To be sure, the killing of 37-year-old Alex Pretti, a nurse at a veterans’ hospital, dramatically shifted public sentiment. Almost immediately, polls revealed a shift in attitudes toward the primary agency enforcing Trump’s immigration crackdown, with a majority of Americans telling YouGov that ICE’s tactics are too aggressive, and more now supporting the elimination of Immigration and Customs Enforcement entirely than those who want to keep it.
Democrats quickly adopted a new stance. Their resigned defeatism from just last month transformed into swift action. On Wednesday, Senate Democrats emerged from their weekly lunch with a level of unity they had, frankly, failed to achieve since Trump’s election. Aides said Pretti’s death was such a clarifying moment for their leaders that inaction was no longer an option. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who holds the least enviable job on Capitol Hill, left the meeting with three key demands to keep the government open beyond Friday: greater coordination between ICE and local law enforcement—including obtaining warrants in some cases, a new code of conduct for agents, and requiring them to remove masks and always wear body cameras while on duty.
Unless a bipartisan agreement is reached—through legislation, not Trump-signed executive orders—Democrats said they would not support keeping the government funded past Friday.
At the Capitol, Senate Majority Leader John Thune distanced himself from the negotiations even as he rejected calls to pass all spending bills except the Homeland Security package and address it separately. “I think right now the conversation should be between the White House and Democrats,” Thune said, pushing the issue to Trump.
Meanwhile, White House aides reached out to the offices of the few Democrats who voted in December to join Republicans in funding the government. Those lawmakers declined even to meet.
Thus, the impasse appears more entrenched than it did just a week ago. It now feels much like the standoff a few months prior, when all but the most critical government functions ground to a halt. As before, the public supports Democrats. And as before, Trump remains indifferent to popular opinion, believing he can outwait his opponents.
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