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The math is clear, and it doesn’t favor national Republicans.
Matt Van Epps’ victory in Tennessee’s gerrymandered district was a Republican win, but it was closer and more expensive than anticipated.
Van Epps’ 9-point victory over Aftyn Behn is less impressive considering the district favored Republicans by 22 points the previous year. This outcome has led some Republicans to fear that next year’s midterms could be worse than expected, and they lack a clear strategy for recovery.
Initially, House Republicans planned to defend 16 vulnerable incumbents. Now, there’s talk of doubling or tripling that number. Democratic strategists estimate about 70 seats are more favorable than Tennessee. If Democrats maintain momentum and recruit strong candidates, that number could reach 100.
The numbers explain Republican concerns. In five special House elections this year, Democrats performed an average of 17 points better than Trump did the year before. Forty-eight incumbent Republicans won their House seats in 2024 by 17 points or less.
If this year’s results are repeated next year, Speaker Mike Johnson’s 219-213 Republican majority could be overturned.
This, combined with Democratic wins in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, the election of a democratic socialist as New York City Mayor, and successful outcomes for a California redistricting measure and state legislative races, explains Republican worries.
The GOP’s disappointment over Van Epps’ win is partly due to the significant investment required to achieve even that margin. Johnson made a last-minute visit to Tennessee, and a pro-Trump super PAC spent $1.6 million on the race in the final two weeks.
The reasons for the GOP’s troubles range from dissatisfaction among the party’s base regarding the lack of transparency in the Jeffrey Epstein scandal to widespread discontent with Trump administration policies, including tariff policy, militarized raids on migrant communities, and the potential military intervention in Venezuela.
These frustrations may intensify as expiring health care subsidies impact families and potentially leave many without coverage, increasing costs for others.
The biggest factor, according to strategists from both parties, is Trump. At the start of his second term, he had 91% support from Republicans, according to . Last month, it was 84%. (For context, Trump had a 95% approval rating among Republicans before his 2020 defeat, according to .)
Among independents, the situation is worse. Trump’s job approval has dropped from 46% at the beginning of the year to 25% in latest survey. Before his 2020 loss, his standing among independents was 41%.
Congress is suffering. In March, 63% of Republicans approved of Congress’s performance. Last month, that fell to 23%, according to Gallup. Among independents, approval dropped from 25% in March to 15% in November. These numbers suggest a need to address the current climate.
Furthermore, history shows that a President’s first election cycle after winning the White House usually goes poorly for their party, with one exception after 9/11.
Republicans are now grappling with how to protect themselves over the next 11 months in a political environment dominated by a capricious President and his constant need for attention. While the GOP base is tiring of The Trump Show, Democrats are energized and more optimistic about ending Republican control of the House and Senate.
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