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It seems President Donald Trump either doesn’t grasp the implications of the policy he’s pushing on House Republicans, or he simply doesn’t care about them.
House Republicans recently supported much of Trump’s domestic agenda by passing a tax-cutting bill. This bill could cause 8.6 million Americans to lose their health insurance through Medicaid or Obamacare subsidies. Additionally, the 1,100-page bill could significantly increase the federal deficit, potentially leading to major cuts in Medicare, a very popular program for older Americans. The bill would also add trillions to the national debt.
Essentially, Trump convinced weary Republicans to vote for a bill that can easily be used against them, without providing a good justification for potentially worsening the lives of millions of elderly, unemployed, working-poor, or disabled Americans.
Despite this, only two Republicans voted against it, indicating their belief that loyalty to Trump will outweigh any political damage from supporting policies that could negatively affect their poorer and more rural districts.
The last-minute negotiations required lawmakers and White House officials to work intensely throughout the week, testing the patience of the divided Republican party. Even the most ardent Trump supporters were exhausted after returning to the Capitol for the final vote before dawn.
The process was messy. No House Republican got everything they wanted, and everyone feels somewhat shortchanged. High-tax states sought relief through exemptions for state and local taxes, which saw a slight increase in the cap but received little sympathy because these areas are typically Democratic strongholds like California and the Northeast. Some workers might benefit from the proposed elimination of taxes on overtime and tips, but it’s unclear if these savings will offset the anger of those losing their health coverage. Deficit hawks might be pleased with cuts to green-energy projects and rural-hospital funding, but this won’t lessen the impact of the bill’s overall cost.
Nevertheless, the bill is passed, and the Senate must now address some of the damaging spending cuts. Cuts to social safety nets for the poor and elderly are difficult to defend, and Democrats are already emphasizing how this bill will disproportionately benefit the wealthiest Americans.
According to an independent analysis, about one-third of those with coverage through Obamacare-era Medicaid expansion programs could lose it in states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. In the crucial state of Wisconsin, more than half of the program could disappear, according to a non-partisan analysis by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.
Another analysis from the Center for American Progress indicates that Republican districts will also be significantly affected.
Trump himself warned his allies against these types of cuts during a private meeting on Tuesday, saying, “Don’t f— around with Medicaid.”
However, he also instructed them to fall in line and do whatever was necessary to extend his 2017 tax cuts while adhering to congressional rules. Trump is again trying to have it both ways, hoping his party will overlook his disregard for their political futures.
To be clear, Republicans are not happy about any of this. Trump visited the House on Tuesday and told lawmakers that dissent would be punished with a primary challenge from a MAGA candidate seeking revenge. Fiscal conservatives particularly dislike the bill’s insufficient spending cuts but still yielded to his demands.
The focus now shifts to the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has stated he will vote against the bill because it would raise the debt ceiling. This means the GOP can only afford to lose two other Republicans to pass the bill (with Vice President J.D. Vance serving as the tie-breaker). Given the diverse interests and personalities in the Senate, completing this by the July 4 holiday will be challenging.
Senators are already discussing adjustments and revisions, hoping to lessen some of the harsher cuts and reinstate some local projects that were cut. But the fact remains: Republicans may be giving Trump his One Big Beautiful Bill Act—yes, that is its actual name—while simultaneously creating their own political downfall. Voters may support the extension of the Trump tax cuts, but they will certainly feel the impact if they lose their health coverage, their elderly neighbors risk losing access to important social programs, and many hospitals face critical funding shortages.
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