Despite Russia once again asserting this week that it had no intention of pursuing genuine peace negotiations concerning Ukraine, Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi to a red carpet welcome. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted the Russian leader on Thursday with a handshake and hug on the tarmac, an act that broke diplomatic protocol. This display served as a reminder that Russia is far from being a geopolitical outcast in important global regions, and it provided New Delhi an opportunity to assert its strategic autonomy as its relations with the U.S. have deteriorated.
President Donald Trump has voiced criticism towards India, ostensibly over its substantial purchase of Russian oil, which ranks among the highest rates worldwide. U.S. Trade Adviser Peter Navarro even went as far as labeling Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine as financially enabled by India due to the significant increase in India’s Russian oil purchases—from near zero to an unprecedented level—and stated that the “path to peace runs, in part, through New Delhi.”
As a result, even as India and the U.S. have been unable to finalize a trade deal, persistent disagreements remain on trade, human rights, intellectual property, and Trump’s perceived alignment with China. This would reverse decades of U.S. policy that considered New Delhi crucial for containing Beijing’s expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Clearly, the Trump Administration’s approach to New Delhi has been short-sighted. This was evident not only during Putin’s current visit to India but also in Modi’s decision in September to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Summit in Tianjin, where he exchanged smiles and held hands with Putin and Xi Jinping. The way certain U.S. lawmakers and administration officials have publicly disparaged India in recent months has become a political liability for Modi domestically, sparking a debate over New Delhi’s increasing closeness to Washington over the past two decades.
The agenda for Putin’s trip covered energy, defense, civil aviation, critical minerals, investment projects, and space cooperation. India still desires Russia to accelerate deliveries of crucial military hardware—including two S-400 missile defense units from a 2018 agreement that have faced delays due to the Ukraine war—and both nations aim to deepen their defense collaboration. Nevertheless, the proportion of Russian arms imports to India has halved in recent years, even though Moscow remains New Delhi’s primary arms supplier. India’s consistent push to diversify its arms supplies, coupled with Russia being preoccupied in Ukraine, will likely constrain deeper bilateral defense ties moving forward.
This is why trade and economics largely dominated the agenda of Putin’s visit. At a press conference on Friday, Putin and Modi outlined an economic cooperation program extending until 2030. However, the recent surge in trade volumes is predominantly due to oil, and that trend appears to be nearing its end. The recent announcement of U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil companies, will significantly curb that trade. Major Indian refiners have already ceased placing new orders for Russian oil. Furthermore, bilateral trade is heavily unbalanced in favor of Russia, leading New Delhi to now seek greater market access in Russia, particularly for pharmaceuticals, machinery, and agricultural products. Putin pledged an “uninterrupted” fuel supply to power the Indian economy.
In some respects, Putin’s trip proved more symbolic than substantive. No major defense agreements were formally signed between Russia and India. While deals were concluded for critical minerals, civilian nuclear energy, and shipbuilding, these are minor when contrasted with the current oil trade. Furthermore, Modi was careful to state that India was not impartial regarding the Ukraine war and stood on
Both India and Russia encounter considerable challenges as they navigate the evolving geopolitical and geoeconomic landscapes. Modi and Putin have made it explicit that they intend to continue investing in bilateral ties. They also appear to recognize that historical defense collaborations and a temporary spike in oil trade cannot serve as the sole foundations for their engagement. Washington might find reassurance in the numerous impediments to strengthening U.S.-India ties. Nevertheless, Putin’s visit should serve as a cautionary signal to Trump that his recent approach toward India is improbable to succeed.
