Moldova’s recent election could prove to be a pivotal moment. The reformist Party of Action (PAS), led by President Maia Sandu, has secured a strong mandate as it prepares the country for E.U. membership. Although Moldova is home to just 2.4 million people, the vote represents a clear setback for Russian ambitions in this small yet strategically important nation.
The Kremlin’s influence in Moldova has been considerable. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has supported separatist forces in the breakaway Transnistria region, utilizing this as a constant tool to maintain pressure on the central government in Chișinău. Russian influence expanded over time to significantly penetrate Moldovan security ministries and key economic sectors. Past presidents also maintained close ties to Moscow. The only effective counter to the Russian challenge is consistent, reform-minded political leadership, which is what is currently being observed.
The PAS parliamentary win follows an earlier success last year. The outcome was surprising, as pre-election polls had indicated the two main Moscow-backed parties—the Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), led by Dodon, and the National Alternative Movement (MAN)—would achieve a near majority.
However, PAS won 50.2% of the vote. BEP finished in a distant second with 24.17%, and MAN received 7.96%. The votes from parties that did not secure seats in parliament will be distributed proportionally, meaning PAS is expected to secure several seats beyond a simple majority of 51.
Sandu’s mandate is rock solid. Her parliamentary majority will enable her to pass the necessary legislation for joining the bloc, which she hopes to accomplish within this decade. The symbolism of such an achievement would be a major blow to Moscow’s imperial project of fostering a “Russian world” that aims to rally ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers abroad to support the Kremlin’s interests. It would also undermine Russia’s substantial control over key areas, a development that pro-Moscow columnists are actively discussing on Telegram.
Moscow undertook considerable efforts to prevent a PAS victory. Chișinău has accused Russian agents of funneling substantial funds—a staggering 1% of Moldova’s GDP—to buy votes during the presidential election and E.U. referendum last year. Sandu has also accused Russia of spending “hundreds of millions” to subvert the parliamentary election last weekend. Meanwhile, the country’s election commission disqualified the pro-Russian Heart of Moldova (PRIM) and Moldova Mare (PMM) parties from participating in the vote amid allegations of voter bribery, illegal financing, and money laundering.
Multiple monitoring groups and investigations have likewise indicated a surge of disinformation campaigns with ties to Russia. One such investigation by the Associated Press uncovered fake news sites that “impersonate legitimate Western media and pay ‘engagement farms’ in Africa, while AI bots are deployed to flood comment sections deriding PAS and the E.U.”
BEP leader Dodon did not even wait for the first results to come in before rejecting the outcome, and called for demonstrations outside of parliament. Fortunately, the crowds numbered only in the hundreds.
A crucial reason was that election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe concluded the vote was “competitive and offered voters a clear choice among political alternatives but the process was marred by serious cases of foreign interference, illicit financing, cyber-attacks, and widespread disinformation.” The OSCE preliminary observation was not without criticism of Chișinău for disqualifying PRIM and PMM just before the vote in a way that “limited their right to effective remedy,” but the overall election assessment was positive.
The fate of Moldova now rests with Sandu and PAS. If they can effectively use their fresh mandate to pass and implement the legislation needed to reform the country and join the E.U., the parliamentary election will be recognized as a major event in the country’s evolution.
Winning the election was challenging, but enacting the transformational changes Sandu advocates will be significantly harder.
