Myanmar’s military regime acknowledged on Monday that it had lost communication with commanders at a strategically important army headquarters in the northeast, lending credence to a militia group’s claim of capturing the base.
The fall of the army’s Northeast Command in Lashio city would be the most significant setback for Myanmar’s military government this year, as an offensive by an alliance of powerful militias of ethnic minority groups continues to make significant gains in the ongoing civil war.
“The regime’s loss of the Northeast Command is the most humiliating defeat of the war,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who heads its project. “Without Lashio, it will be extremely difficult for the regime to hold onto its final outposts in the theater.”
These outposts include the key Muse border crossing with China, as well as the strategic crossroads at Kyaukme. This loss also opens the way for attacks on Pyin Oo Lwin and Myanmar’s second-largest city, Mandalay, Michaels said.
In a video broadcast on Monday night on state television, the head of the ruling military council, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, offered a vague explanation for the base’s fall, stating that some security forces in northern Shan State left their outposts because protecting the lives of the people was their top priority.
During his 25-minute address, he accused the ethnic resistance forces and “traitor maggots” both inside and outside Myanmar of collaborating and spreading propaganda to demoralize the public.
He alleged that warlordism is on the rise among leaders of the insurgent groups, and that people are likely to face illegal and unjust killings, as well as an economy fueled by drug trafficking and gambling. The army, he said, will continue to implement security measures to restore stability.
The loss of Lashio raises concerns about whether Myanmar’s ruling military council might be compelled to abandon attempts to control contested territory in favor of consolidating a defense of the central heartland.
It could also contribute to growing discontent with , who seized power after leading the overthrow of the elected government of in 2021.
“It seems increasingly unlikely that the army could survive with Min Aung Hlaing at the helm,” Michaels said.
Lashio, about 110 kilometers (70 miles) south of the Chinese border, has been the target of an offensive by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army since early July.
The MNDAA is a military force of the Kokang minority, who are ethnic Chinese. It is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which in October launched a surprise offensive that successfully seized large tracts of territory along the northern border with China.
The Chinese Embassy in Myanmar on Tuesday urged its citizens in Lashio and other parts of Shan state to take extra security precautions, and to avoid conflict zones or return to China.
Beijing helped broker a cease-fire in January, but that agreement fell apart in June when the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, another member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance composed of Ta’ang ethnic minority members, launched new attacks, followed by the MNDAA.
The alliance’s third member, the Arakan Army, has never ceased fighting in its home Rakhine State in western Myanmar.
The groups in the alliance have been fighting for decades for greater autonomy from Myanmar’s central government. They are loosely allied with People’s Defense Forces, pro-democracy resistance groups that have emerged to fight military rule.
The MNDAA initially claimed the capture of the Northeast Command and Lashio on July 25, but it turned out that the announcement was premature as the army continued to fight.
The MNDAA in a statement on Facebook on Saturday said the group had finally completely captured the Northeast Command headquarters and defeated the remaining army units in Lashio.
The claims could not be verified independently, with access to the internet and mobile phone services in the area mostly cut off.
A member of Lashio’s Freedom Youth Volunteers-FYV, reached while outside the city, told The Associated Press on Monday that other members of his aid group had reported army personnel remained in control of some areas of the Northeast Command headquarters, though most had been taken by the MNDAA.
He spoke on the condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisals from both sides.
There were reports of gunfire in the city on Sunday, but images of captured soldiers and equipment were circulating widely on social media, suggesting the MNDAA had taken the base. The MNDAA released a photo of its fighters posing in front of a sign outside the Northeast Command.
“The regime has clearly suffered an enormous loss and no longer has any meaningful control of the city, even if it retains a toehold for now,” Michaels said.
Early Monday, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, the spokesperson of Myanmar’s ruling military council, said in an audio statement on state-run MRTV television that it had lost contact with commanders of the Northeast Command headquarters Saturday night and had unconfirmed reports that some have been arrested by the MNDAA.
He did not address MNDAA’s claim of capturing the base.
—Rising reported from Bangkok.
