As global temperatures go up, the very thing we rely on to keep cool might be a major factor in increased emissions and something else (the text seems incomplete here).
A new study published today in the journal Nature Communications estimates that by 2050, air-conditioning use is likely to more than double as more people turn to air conditioning to stay cool in the midst of (again, seems incomplete), significantly contributing to expected greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, as incomes increase in developing countries and more low and medium-income regions gain the same access to AC as high-income regions, we could see an additional 0.015°C to 0.05°C of warming by 2050.
The increase could create what the researchers call a “feedback loop,” where closing the inequality gap and improving access to air conditioning would make global climate targets unattainable. Regions most vulnerable to rising temperatures, such as (incomplete), currently have the least access to air-conditioning. In contrast, wealthier regions like Europe and North America have lower cooling needs but higher air-conditioning usage.
“The study shows that if all low-income regions had the same access to air-conditioning as rich regions, related global emissions would soar dramatically—even in the most climate-friendly scenario, adding up to 0.05°C extra warming,” Hongzhi Zhang, from the Beijing Institute of Technology and the first author of the study, said in a press release.
It has long been known that air conditioning contributes to global warming. Existing cooling equipment uses hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants, which are powerful greenhouse gases. A 2023 report from the U.N. claims that refrigeration and air conditioning are responsible for 7% of global emissions.
But despite the impact, more and more people are turning to AC to stay cool. The number of residential air conditioning units in operation has tripled since 2000, reaching more than 1.5 billion in 2022, according to the (IEA). That number is only going to increase—more than 45% of the global population is expected to own an air conditioner by 2030—compared to 37% in 2023.
The team used a combination of climate science, energy modelling, and inequality analysis to map out future scenarios from strong climate action to high emissions. The researchers estimated how much cooling people will need as temperatures rise—taking into account factors like humidity and population. They then put those estimates into a global energy–economy model to predict how many air conditioners people will buy, how much electricity will be used, and how much greenhouse gas emissions the devices will produce.
They then ran the model under the five “” (SSPs), widely used climate modeling pathways that show how societal choices will affect greenhouse gas emissions.
The study is a reminder that air conditioning is not the answer to rising temperatures—and that low-income countries cannot be left out when it comes to staying cool in a warming world. The researchers emphasized the importance of moving away from traditional refrigerants, decarbonizing power grids, and giving priority to other adaptive measures, like better insulation and shading. And people will need to learn to change their behaviors—avoiding using AC during peak hours and turning the air conditioning down.
“As global temperatures rise, we risk being caught in an ‘arms race’ where defending ourselves against extreme heat is making the problem worse,” Yuli Shan, a professor at the University of Birmingham who studies climate change and sustainable transitions, said. “The world must quickly transition to cleaner, more efficient cooling technologies—while ensuring fair access to cooling, especially for vulnerable populations.”
