In New York City on Tuesday, leaders from various Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations met in an atmosphere of significant apprehension. This gathering, which also involved other Arab and Muslim leaders, occurred days after an unprecedented —a shocking escalation that undermined their trust in U.S. security assurances underpinning regional stability.
Subsequent to the assault, Saudi Arabia, the leading GCC nation, finalized a , a military force possessing nuclear arms. The Saudis are their American counterparts until the agreement was sealed.
Some in Washington interpret this significant occurrence as Saudi Arabia distancing itself from the U.S., viewing it as an implicit challenge to America’s security umbrella. This interpretation is incorrect. The agreement targets not Washington, but rather aims to supplement U.S. security guarantees that have consistently demonstrated their insufficiency—previously against Iran, and most recently in preventing and protecting against the Israeli airstrike .
These anxieties and grievances among America’s Gulf Arab partners are not new. They span more than a decade and across Republican and Democratic administrations alike. The Obama Administration and the Iran nuclear agreement. Despite his initial engagement, Trump did not react during his first term when Houthi drones and missiles struck Saudi oil installations in 2019. Similarly, President Biden ignored the Iran-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen’s drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates in 2022. Every one of these incidents strengthened the belief in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and other capitals that the U.S. cannot be the sole guarantor of security.
Last week’s audacious Israeli airstrikes against Hamas negotiators in Doha intensified those anxieties. For a long time, Gulf leaders’ apprehension focused on Iran. However, Israel—Washington’s staunchest regional ally—now violating such a critical boundary has eroded trust in America’s capacity to prevent the regional equilibrium from dangerously destabilizing.
The Trump Administration stated its inability to prevent the attack, having been informed by Israel only as its aircraft were airborne and poised to launch missiles. Scarcely any Arab leaders accept this account, and hints that Trump received significant forewarning.
Arab apprehensions are magnified by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s personal statements and deeds. After dismantling a substantial portion of the Iran-supported network throughout the Levant, Netanyahu now proclaims Israel is battling “,” a sweeping pronouncement suggesting an aim to transform the region far beyond restricted self-defense. Currently, Israeli forces possess and within . Domestically, Netanyahu alongside incorporating expansive segments of the West Bank. For GCC leaders, such discourse and actions are not merely provocative but also destabilizing, imperiling a unilateral redrawing of the Middle East map, supplanting Iranian dominance with that of Israel.
The Gulf nations are important U.S. allies. Their energy resources and vast sovereign wealth funds contribute to America’s competitive advantage against China in future energy and capital-intensive sectors—AI, cloud computing, and the extraction and refinement of rare-earth minerals. Moreover, their hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. treasury bills reinforce the dollar’s standing as the global reserve currency. Trump undoubtedly recognizes this, which explains why he chose Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as his initial foreign visits upon assuming office, obtaining .
For this reason, Trump must interpret the Saudi-Pakistan defense agreement not as a repudiation, but as a cautionary signal. The Gulf states are safeguarding themselves against excessive Israeli influence—not forsaking America.
The by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington this November will present an opportunity to reassure and deepen defense ties with the most important GCC state. And while an ironclad defense treaty approved by the U.S. Senate , Trump can expand upon current defense commitments patterned on the finalized in 2023, the strongest U.S. pledge apart from NATO’s Article 5. These pledges must extend to safeguarding Gulf allies, even when the origin of the threat is Israel.
Should the Trump Administration neglect to take action, the Saudi–Pakistan defense agreement might evolve beyond a mere bilateral accord. Regional powers Egypt and Turkey, also present at Tuesday’s gathering, share significant apprehension regarding an Israeli-controlled Middle Eastern structure. This pact could form the core for additional Islamic defense arrangements—thereby eroding Trump’s distinctive foreign-policy accomplishment: .
Instead of broadening the Abraham Accords and facilitating greater normalization between Israel and Arab countries, unrestricted Israeli expansionism will compel America’s Arab and Muslim partners into establishing their own parallel security frameworks.
Washington faces a clear dilemma. It must either reassure America’s Gulf partners and confine Israel within its rightful boundaries—or hazard witnessing the disintegration of America’s security framework in the Middle East.
