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Consult with virtually any Democratic strategist presently and you’ll encounter a fair amount of optimism. While they undoubtedly view Donald Trump’s second term’s inaugural year as an absolute catastrophe, they find solace in his significantly diminished standing among voters. Even his core Republican supporters are reportedly exhausted by his turbulent progression from grievances to authoritarian rhetoric and back.
Republicans, when approached, can scarcely dispute these observations. Even after successfully navigating this autumn’s unprecedented government shutdown, the GOP largely shouldered more of the blame in the public’s perception. Republicans recognize their current predicament and see no advantage in denying it.
This context explains why today’s special election in heavily Republican Tennessee is drawing more intense scrutiny from both political parties than is typical for a contest where holiday shoppers would normally outnumber voters. The sole independent poll for the Nashville-area district indicates Republican Matt Van Epps holds a 2-point lead in a district Trump won by 22 points just over a year ago. This helps elucidate why Speaker Mike Johnson commenced his week on the ground there, and why Trump himself utilized Johnson’s phone to address a rally via speakerphone.
“The world is currently observing Tennessee, and specifically your district,” Trump stated on Monday. The outcome on Tuesday “must demonstrate that the Republican Party is stronger than it has ever been,” the President affirmed.
Democrats perceive this election as a chance not necessarily to secure a win, but to at least disrupt Trump by narrowing Van Epps’ victory margin to single digits. They recently initiated a $1 million ad campaign in the district—a departure from prior special elections this year and an indication that this House race in a Trump stronghold is proving more competitive than expected. State Rep. Aftyn Behn is performing more robustly than anticipated for the seat left vacant when Rep. Mark Green departed Congress for a private sector role. Van Epps, an Army veteran who piloted helicopters and served as a state commissioner, is also receiving assistance from external organizations striving to salvage the contest.
The election’s outcome could influence more than just who represents Tennessee’s 7th District. Johnson is operating with extremely narrow margins that could soon worsen. As voting commenced on Tuesday, Republicans maintained a 219-213 majority in the House. Next month, Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, disillusioned with Washington’s toxic political climate, intends to return to Georgia a year before her term concludes. Forthcoming special elections in Texas and Virginia are poised to offer Democrats reasonably straightforward victories, and Greene’s vacated seat could become problematic for Republicans. In fact, it’s not unimaginable to see Republicans come within one vote of losing their majority sometime in 2025. (And this is prior to considering that 24 House Republicans have already declared they will not seek re-election next year.)
Indeed, Democrats are aware they are still discussing Tennessee. Privately, they are circulating internal polling that places them between 7 and 10 points behind—a losing position, yet potentially within striking distance of an upset if conditions align perfectly.
Trump secured that district with 67% of the vote last year, while Green won with 60%. Republicans possess an inherent voter registration advantage of approximately 10 points. However, none of these figures deterred Kamala Harris from making an appearance in the district last month to bolster Behn, nor did they dissuade Democrats from vigorously attempting to nationalize the race, much as they did successfully with a state Supreme Court race this spring.
Furthermore, candidates and consultants nationwide will interpret tonight’s results as an indicator of the GOP’s vitality heading into next year’s midterm elections. This makes it considerably easier to justify the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super PAC investing $1.5 million in pro-Van Epps advertisements, alongside external groups Conservatives for American Excellence and Club for Growth Action each making six-figure ad buys.
Electorally, Democrats are enjoying a favorable period. Last month, they triumphed in off-year statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia, and New York City elected a democratic socialist as its next Mayor. In California, voters supported Democrats’ overtly partisan initiative to redraw congressional maps to expand the party’s representation. In four special elections preceding these, Democratic candidates improved their margin by an average of 16 points compared to their 2024 performances. Relative to Harris, last year’s White House nominee, Democratic candidates this year performed 18 points better.
Despite some favorable trends for Democrats in Tennessee, the fact remains that they are confronting voters with some of their lowest recorded polling; CNN’s survey last month indicated Democrats’ unfavorable levels were the highest in over 30 years of the network’s data.
Nevertheless, Trump is performing even worse. CNN’s survey found that four out of five Democrats stated their votes next year would be intended to convey a message of rejection to Trump.
So, as political analysts prepare their vote spreadsheets for the final time this calendar year, it is worthwhile to consider the Tennessee race within the broader context of its potential implications for Johnson’s—and Trump’s—majority in the House. “We believe what transpires here will serve as a bellwether for next year’s midterms,” Johnson informed reporters on Monday. For Trump to achieve any further legislative victories before next year’s midterms, he requires his allies in the House to perceive their fortunes as aligned with his own. Given this year’s observations, that outcome is far from assured.
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