Shutdown Sign 10/1/25

This piece is featured in The D.C. Brief, TIME’s political newsletter. Subscribe to receive similar articles directly in your inbox.

A palpable sense of disarray pervades the government corridors. 

With the initial day of a unfolding in Washington, it appeared that not all government personnel were aware of the directives. Congressional passages remained bustling, despite the absence of House Republicans. Federal departments continued operating, even though employees classified as non-essential were expected to be absent.

Across the District, a persistent question has arisen among federal employees and their associates during this shutdown: Which fate awaits them – furlough or termination? For numerous individuals, this ambiguity is breeding another form of distress—frustration—alongside a growing feeling that the established protocols for government shutdowns are being altered spontaneously. Without definite answers regarding these new regulations, speculation abounds.

In previous shutdowns, the distinction between those and those required to continue working unpaid was more defined. Most staff members were instructed to remain home until the situation was resolved. Essential personnel, however, were expected to report for duty, notwithstanding delays in their regular paychecks.

Currently, Trump and his officials are cautioning that this funding gap will lead to entire sections of the federal workforce. The White House budget director informed legislators on Wednesday that these ultimate determinations might become apparent within a day or two. Separately, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt communicated to journalists that she couldn’t provide a precise percentage of employees facing dismissal, but verified .

Earlier today, Bloomberg Law that the patent office terminated approximately 1% of its staff—a decision potentially unrelated to the shutdown, as the agency is self-sustaining. Nevertheless, this action was largely perceived as a precursor, prompting other federal employees to urgently seek clarification from their superiors. 

In light of these warnings, the comparatively low number of employees who have yet to be furloughed is causing concern. Speculation is mounting that factors beyond the necessity of their roles are at play. The rationale suggests that a furloughed individual could be more readily identified as dispensable, thus simplifying the Administration’s argument for their permanent removal. This leads some in Washington to suspect that managers are identifying fewer employees for furlough compared to prior impasses. (Additionally, the total number of federal workers is reduced from earlier periods, as Trump significantly downsized the government earlier this year, diminishing the overall federal workforce.)

Overall, the impact of the shutdown appears highly inconsistent. While national parks, small business financing, and even access to the Statue of Liberty’s are uncertain, the Internal Revenue Service remains , at least for the initial five days; in certain instances, the Trump administration is utilizing modernization funds from Joe Biden’s infrastructure legislation to maintain operations, accounting for why only 2% of Treasury personnel were instructed to remain home. Federal judicial operations continue, though the longevity of their financial reserves is questionable. Food safety inspectors are currently inactive but might be recalled. 

Furthermore, while nine out of ten Environmental Protection Agency employees were initially slated for lockout, recent indicates a significantly reduced figure.

At present, partisan impulses are and clear information is scarce. The Senate once more failed to resolve the stalemate on Wednesday, and House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that his Republican-controlled chamber would not hold a vote until next week at the earliest. The Department of Agriculture and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have published statements on their websites attributing blame to Democrats, a blatant political maneuver departing from previous impartiality. An Undersecretary of State personnel with a memo accusing Democrats of causing the employees’ predicaments.

Trump is increasingly exercising his impoundment authority, a tactic where the President unilaterally chooses not to allocate funds designated by Congress for specific initiatives. These ‘pocket rescissions’ represent an escalation beyond how previous Presidents have adjusted spending and may precede widespread terminations. For example, the Interior Department has staff to bring home their mobile devices and laptops to monitor for potential dismissals.

Nevertheless, Washington remains uncertain about the full scope of this shutdown’s impact. Some employees were observed wandering through government offices on Wednesday, seeking clarity. The most straightforward query? Whether their access cards would still grant them entry to their workspaces? 

Understand the key developments in Washington. .