President Donald Trump’s unprecedented summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska did not succeed in securing the ceasefire in Ukraine that he had hoped for. However, Trump demonstrated greater caution than many diplomatic observers expected, proceeding in consultation with European allies and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—and the lack of a breakthrough at the Alaska Summit should not be seen as an outright catastrophe or a repetition of Neville Chamberlain’s 1938 appeasement in Munich.
What occurs next holds far more importance than the anticipated failure to achieve a significant agreement, and Trump must now ensure the war becomes financially and militarily more burdensome for Putin. It is time to challenge Putin directly.
As Trump himself stated prior to the meeting, if Putin refused to cease his war on Ukraine, there must be “costly consequences,” and the moment has arrived for Trump to intensify pressure by increasing economic sanctions on Putin and reinforcing military aid for Ukraine. As Admiral James Savridis, Former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, commented: “Putin once again deceived Trump with diplomatic stalling tactics, and there should be military repercussions for Putin.”
It would be a grave error if this situation merely became another instance where Trump issues threats against Putin, only to withdraw prematurely. Clearly, Putin is counting on Trump to back down and fall prey to his deceptive maneuvers. But such an aggressive-sounding, yet ineffective, approach would damage U.S. credibility as much as it would diminish Trump’s own standing. Trump’s initial response, suggesting that it would be up to President Zelenskyy to advance discussions, is precisely the opposite of what is required. The truth is that even now, Trump possesses all the leverage, while Putin holds none.
Despite Putin’s bravado, claiming a victory from the legitimacy of visiting U.S. soil for the first time in a decade, and despite having an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against him following the killing of tens of thousands of civilians and other grave acts; still, Trump avoided the worst-case scenario of succumbing to Putin’s propaganda, by halting hours of planned follow-up meetings that Putin had arranged with Russian business and economic development officials. Trump has been correct in acknowledging that none of the 1,200 companies whose departure from Russia we helped expedite have ever expressed interest in returning to Russia.
The very fact that Putin believed the U.S. needs the Russian economy demonstrates how deluded Putin remains. Putin’s only marketable goods are easily interchangeable raw materials that he offers to the global market; no finished products, industrial goods, pharmaceutical ingredients, fashion items, or financial services originate from Russia at scale. Akin to a mercantile colony, all Putin possesses is extensive land, raw materials, and pathological propaganda.
The reality is that despite Putin’s strongman posturing, he is an economic and military failure, and Putin’s precarious position is far more vulnerable than many perceive. In fact, after three grueling years of warfare, Putin’s economy is in ruins as Putin struggles to sustain his war efforts.
For years now, Putin has been obscuring the true weakness of the Russian economy by concealing and manipulating data. Putin refuses to disclose crucial economic indicators as requested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This includes foreign trade data, monthly oil and gas output data, and central bank monetary base figures.
Due to Putin’s obfuscation, few comprehend how close Russia is to depleting its cash reserves. The value of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and foreign exchange reserves has decreased by half since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, as he draws down his windfall oil revenues instead of replenishing his coffers. This is because Putin is running an unsustainable record budget deficit to fund his war machine, amounting to tens of billions. And with over 1,200 companies having exited from Russia, the Kremlin is exhausting its sources of funds to maintain operations.
The time has come for Trump to intensify economic sanctions and financial pressure on Russia by permanently halting Putin’s exports of oil and other natural resources. By tightening the screws on Putin’s already fragile economic system, Putin could run out of money very soon—possibly even by the end of the year. Already, Trump has threatened secondary tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, which aligns with the bipartisan legislation proposed by many of his Republican allies in the Senate, including the “Cutting off Russia’s Energy Exports Act” legislation co-sponsored by Senator Lindsey Graham and Senator Richard Blumenthal, which would impose secondary tariffs and sanctions on countries that continue to finance Russia’s war machine.
Concurrently, Trump must bolster military assistance for Ukraine, with our European allies contributing an increasing share of the burden as previously appropriated. Already, there is strong bipartisan support in Congress, including from Trump’s Republican allies, for another significant military aid package to help Ukraine, despite the misguided objections of outnumbered, outgunned isolationists such as JD Vance who argue against further support for Ukraine. Already, there is a bipartisan proposal in the Senate for a $60 billion aid package in new assistance to Ukraine, which would represent the largest aid package for Ukraine to date.
Providing Ukraine with desperately needed military aid is the most effective way to demonstrate who truly possesses the upper hand. In particular, the provision of F-16s and Patriot missile interceptors would offer an incredibly powerful and effective boost.
That military aid is sorely needed. As Ambassador Michael McFaul noted on MSNBC, “since President Trump has been in the White House, the war has become more aggressive. There’s been more attacks on Ukrainian civilians, the number of drone and missile attacks have gone up.”
After attempting and failing to secure a ceasefire from Putin, the time has arrived for Trump to impose the “costly consequences” against Putin that he has previously warned about. If he fails to do so, then Trump’s inaction, following Putin’s blatant refusal to agree to a ceasefire and other measures to end the war on constructive terms, will be deserving of comparisons to Chamberlain’s Munich summit with Hitler—and will be remembered as a far greater misstep than Joe Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.”
