Eric Green, who organized a previous summit between the U.S. and Russia as Senior Director for Russia and Central Asia at the National Security Council, frequently received calls from regarding questions about . This was particularly true in early 2021.
That spring, Putin moved tens of thousands of troops to the Ukrainian border, sparking invasion concerns.
Simultaneously, Russian hackers launched ransomware attacks on American entities. Furthermore, a crucial U.S.-Russia nuclear treaty was nearing expiration. Consequently, Biden, like Trump would later do, proposed a meeting to talk.
Green stated this week, in response to comparisons with Trump’s upcoming summit with , that “The context was completely different.”
Indeed, when met in June 2021, Russia had not yet invaded Ukraine. However, Putin’s stance on Ukraine has remained constant.
Green notes, “There is continuity in his views about Ukraine. He wants to control its freedom of action, to dominate it.”
Trump’s summit goals with Putin, such as territorial swaps or a partial ceasefire, fail to address Putin’s stated “root causes” of the war. Green clarifies, “When he talks about root causes, he’s talking about Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign, independent country. That’s not Trump’s to give away.”
Without addressing these “root causes,” Putin is unlikely to leave Ukraine in peace. A temporary truce might allow his forces to recover and his economy to rebuild. However, seizing Ukrainian territory wouldn’t satisfy Putin’s ambition to control the entire country. Vladimir Solovyov, a prominent Russian state TV propagandist, cautioned his viewers this week, “Don’t delude yourselves. This war is for a long time,” regarding the summit’s peace prospects.
In June 2021, Putin’s aims weren’t yet evident to Washington. Prior to the Switzerland summit, Russia withdrew most troops from the Ukrainian border, suggesting a desire to avert war. However, after the meeting, Biden and Putin’s positions remained too divergent for a joint press conference. Green explains, “We refused to have a joint press conference with him. We were dealing with an adversary, not a partner.”
Weeks later, Putin argued in a lengthy piece that Ukraine rightfully belongs to Russia and lacks the basis for independent nationhood. “True sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia,” he wrote.
By late 2021, Russian troop presence at the border increased, prompting another attempt by Biden to de-escalate tensions through a summit. He even offered to discuss broader topics beyond , including NATO’s future and European security.
Russia responded with demands deemed unreasonable by the U.S., primarily requiring NATO to withdraw from eastern Europe to its pre-Putin-era borders. Sergei Ryabkov, the lead Russian envoy, stated, “NATO needs to pack up its stuff and go back to where it was in 1997.”
The U.S. rejected this ultimatum and threatened sanctions, which were implemented upon Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
Since then, Ukrainian military strength, supported by Western arms, has been the sole barrier preventing Putin from seizing the entire country. Even battlefield setbacks, such as Kyiv in spring 2022 and Kharkiv and Kherson that fall, haven’t diminished his ambitions.
Currently, the war is a protracted stalemate centered on the Donbas region, where Russian forces continue to make incremental territorial gains, despite heavy losses and widespread destruction in the towns they claim to be liberating.
Putin continues to insist that the “root causes” must be resolved before peace can be achieved. On August 1, days before Trump confirmed the Alaska summit, Putin repeated: “Our conditions, the goals of Russia, have not changed. The main thing is to uproot the causes of this crisis.”
All the while, the Russian leader has repeated time and again that the “root causes” of the invasion must be addressed before he ends the war. He said it again on August 1, about a week before Trump confirmed his plans for a summit in Alaska. “Our conditions, the goals of Russia, have not changed,” Putin said. “The main thing is to uproot the causes of this crisis.”
While the phrase might seem open to various interpretations, those who’ve dealt with Putin find it anything but.
Green emphasizes Putin’s consistency on this point. Putin desires all of Ukraine and will use any means necessary to achieve this. While a tactical pause to allow Trump to play peacemaker might be feasible, securing Ukraine’s future requires more. Only the Ukrainians, with the support they can garner, can ensure that future.
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