Indications suggest that U.S. President Donald Trump aims to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power. His preference is to achieve this without initiating a war that could potentially go awry.
To date, the campaign against Venezuela has involved actions targeting over a dozen vessels that the White House claims are transporting narcotics towards the U.S.—substances Trump asserted in a Nov. 2 interview on 60 Minutes are “destroying families all over our country.” When questioned if this constituted war, Trump responded, “I don’t think so. But they’ve been treating us very badly.” In recent weeks, some individuals have died due to U.S. strikes on boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific.
The U.S. has deployed substantial military equipment to the Caribbean, establishing considerable naval strike capabilities and positioning U.S. troops near Venezuela’s coastline. A potential next move for the U.S. could be striking targets within Venezuela that the Trump Administration maintains are supporting the drug trade. “I’m not gonna tell you what I’m gonna do with Venezuela, if I was gonna do it or if I wasn’t going to do it,” Trump stated during the same 60 Minutes interview. Furthermore, U.S. officials reportedly informed the New York Times last month that “the Trump Administration [had] secretly authorized the CIA to conduct covert action in Venezuela.”
While Venezuela is involved in the trafficking of drugs reaching the U.S., a firm stance against Caracas resonates with Trump’s MAGA base and Latino supporters who believe the U.S. is overly lenient toward Latin American leftists such as Maduro, who has held power since 2013 and faces accusations of various wrongdoings.
Consequently, increasing U.S. pressure seems designed to convince Maduro’s close associates that the price of ongoing allegiance to Venezuela’s authoritarian leader is now excessive, suggesting he should be removed internally to prevent military escalation. Should these strategies prove unsuccessful, the Trump Administration might pursue direct action against Maduro.
An internal move against Maduro by Venezuela’s security services would likely result in U.S.-Venezuelan discussions leading to a member of Maduro’s faction assuming his position. A new President from within the armed forces could potentially improve relations with Washington. In a less probable outcome, owing to the military’s profound distrust of the opposition, certain military factions might align with opposition leaders like Edmundo González or advocate for new elections.
However, engaging with Maduro’s loyalists appears to be the sole path to avert war. The governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela commands all significant national institutions, including the state-owned oil company, which is the regime’s primary financial source. For Maduro to be ousted, the security services would seek assurances regarding their safety, their hold on national power, and access to wealth, probably through international mediation to enhance the credibility of Trump Administration pledges.
Nonetheless, high-ranking Venezuelan military figures are aware that Maduro has been known to surveil his own generals, and that any attempt to move against their President carries the risk of execution. To sway them into action, the U.S. might directly target prominent regime members, such as Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello—against whom there is an active indictment—to compel others to make a move.
Trump recognizes that a failure to dislodge Maduro could lead to humiliation. Moreover, if Maduro is removed through direct U.S. military intervention, the internal situation in Venezuela could deteriorate rapidly, compelling the U.S. President into making decisions he would prefer to sidestep. Extensive social unrest might strip Trump of the capacity to influence Caracas’s leadership and, given the White House’s strong disinclination to endanger American troops to maintain order, could hold Trump accountable for a subsequent bloodbath as Venezuela’s military and security forces struggle to control the ensuing chaos.
The U.S. President will ultimately decide, especially now that efforts to curb his war powers have reportedly failed. While he seems to endorse an intensifying pressure campaign, there is no current sign that he has committed to a definitive strategy to achieve his objectives.
