On Monday, President Donald Trump, expressing increasing frustration with Vladimir Putin, informed reporters in Scotland that the Russian president needed to stop the conflict in Ukraine within “10 or 12 days” to prevent sanctions and additional tariffs. This shortens a 50-day ultimatum he had issued previously in the month. However, this recent warning is improbable to alter Putin’s strategy.
From an external perspective, it is difficult to comprehend the war’s continuation. Putin, who possesses the sole authority to end it, is aware that Russia has incurred significant costs over the last three years and five months, acquiring only 20% of Ukrainian territory. According to some projections, Russia has sustained over battlefield casualties, including a quarter-million fatalities. The conflict has bolstered , which Putin identifies as Russia’s primary adversary, by expanding its membership and prompting European nations to increase defense spending substantially. Since the invasion, approximately young Russians have departed the country, either to evade conscription, seek improved employment opportunities, or for both reasons.
While an expansion of Russia’s military apparatus provided a temporary economic uplift, the sustained loss of European energy clients, a spike in inflation driving interest rates to unprecedented levels, and a growing unwillingness among Russian consumers to spend place Russia’s economic prospects in a precarious position. Observers from outside ponder how challenging it would be for Putin to negotiate an agreement, halt the losses, claim success, and secure Russia’s territorial acquisitions.
Nevertheless, Putin maintains that time favors him. Over the next few months, Russian forces are expected to secure sufficient new territory in eastern Ukraine, reinforcing his dedication to a strategy of intense pressure designed to erode Ukrainian determination. Drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian urban areas and infrastructure are set to persist, as Kyiv has not devised a method to intercept them. Russian forces will intensify pressure in additional regions, further depleting Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. This combination is sufficient to convince Russia’s president to continue the conflict.
Volodymyr Zelensky, however, is not prepared to make concessions. Ukraine’s president faces diminished domestic standing due to his government’s unsuccessful effort to control a watchdog body that had begun criticizing his political associates. Even if he were in a stronger position, Ukrainians have endured far too much suffering imposed by the Kremlin to grant concessions significant enough to appease a Russian president who will probably demand further concessions. Furthermore, Ukrainians will not trust Putin or future Russian leaders to uphold any agreements made to conclude the ongoing hostilities.
Trump lacks the influence to alter this situation. Direct trade between the U.S. and Russia is insufficient to pose a credible threat, although he has cautioned about potential tariffs on nations engaging in commerce with Russia. Nevertheless, Putin has valid reasons to question whether Trump will initiate new disputes with China and India, currently Russia’s two largest energy buyers, especially as Trump aims to finalize substantial trade agreements with both nations. European Union sanctions will not change Putin’s assessment. The primary measure in Europe’s 18th sanctions package targeting Russia, a flexible oil price cap, will compel Russian oil exporters to increasingly depend on the covert fleet of tankers they have employed to bypass the cap. However, without U.S. backing, their effect will be minimal, and the EU possesses limited capacity to impede Russia’s defense industry.
Furthermore, Trump’s capacity to exert pressure on Zelensky is not as strong as it seemed only weeks prior, given that his constantly evolving, seemingly inconsistent tactical stances towards both Ukraine and Russia imply the U.S. president could reverse course once more. Putin and Zelensky are also cognizant that Trump currently faces numerous other pressing issues.
Another potential reason for Putin to extend this increasingly expensive war of attrition exists. It is possible that his conviction in continuing the war represents yet another entry on his growing catalog of strategic errors. The invasion itself constituted a monumental misjudgment regarding the capabilities of both Russia and Ukraine.
Perhaps he refrains from reaching an agreement because he remains unable to perceive the extent of Russia’s potential losses.
