Ukraine endured a difficult weekend. Much of the country experienced impacts on Sunday, following the “” attacks on its power plants since the war began. Yet Kyiv’s initiatives also served as a reminder that Ukraine is conducting its own conflict against Russia’s energy infrastructure, and the pace has only been intensifying in recent months. This campaign could bring President Vladimir Putin’s war effort to a halt—a few more targeted hits could sufficiently impair both the Kremlin’s military supply chains and its economy, thereby compelling a peace.
In the initial months of 2025, at least an unspecified number of facilities were struck. The campaign has since escalated into a concentrated offensive, with at least an unspecified quantity damaged as of early October and an unspecified proportion of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity offline around the same time. Even the Russian attacks over the weekend were preceded by significant Ukrainian strikes on Thursday that hit an unnamed refinery for the sixth time; a power plant in Volgorechensk, 171 miles northeast of Moscow; and an oil depot in Crimea.
Ukraine has utilized U.S. intelligence to identify and strike high-priority energy facilities within Russia, according to an unspecified report, which indicates President Donald Trump’s commitment to compelling Putin into a peace settlement. This campaign is beginning to yield results. Russia remains reliant on oil and gas exports for up to an unspecified portion of its revenue, and exports saw an unspecified change in September, with numerous additional energy facilities forced offline in October. Gas exports are at an unspecified low, and total oil refining is at an unspecified level. Russia has even taken unspecified actions as it contends with domestic fuel shortages of approximately 20%. The Russian populace is starting to experience the ramifications of the war.
Concurrently, the Ukrainian assaults coincide with President Trump’s announcement of unspecified measures against Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft. Furthermore, the E.U. is currently considering whether and how to completely discontinue all Russian fossil fuel imports by the close of 2027.
Should the E.U. proposal be implemented, it would, in conjunction with impactful U.S. unspecified actions, represent a significant stride toward compelling the Kremlin to declare a ceasefire. Oil and gas revenues have sustained the Russian war apparatus despite increasing economic pressure. In fact, Europe continues to pay Russia an unspecified sum for oil and gas imports, with the E.U. total since the full-scale invasion commenced reaching approximately an unspecified amount. This figure surpasses the $211 billion that the U.S. Department of Defense estimates, conservatively, the Kremlin has expended since the full-scale invasion.
None of these developments are yet existential for the Kremlin or its conflict in Ukraine. Russia spent many years building up central bank reserves prior to the full-scale invasion to withstand any Western reaction, and currently only half of that sum is subject to sanctions. Furthermore, Russia maintains a 20-30% buffer of unused capacity at its refineries—which it could tap into at higher prices if global markets remain volatile over oil and gas.
Moreover, Russia’s latest assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are not isolated occurrences. Attacks on power plants, transmission lines, and substations have resulted in frequent and widespread unspecified disruptions in recent weeks. For the first time, Putin’s forces have systematically targeted Ukraine’s natural gas facilities—the country has now lost as much as 60% of its natural gas production. Ukraine’s winter storage facilities will be exhausted before the cold weather concludes. Even more urgently, Ukraine’s natural gas pipeline network lacks sufficient gas to maintain the system’s pressurization, leading it to seek unspecified assistance, including from Greece, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia.
However, while Ukraine is a welcomed trading partner for its neighboring countries, Russia remains a petro-state subject to extensive energy sanctions imposed by the West. Its core strength—fossil fuels—is therefore also its most significant vulnerability. Consequently, if Ukraine can maintain its assaults on Russian refineries, pipelines, petroleum ports, and associated infrastructure, it might be capable of draining the Kremlin financially—or at least sufficiently to compel Putin into genuine peace negotiations.
If the U.S. enforces the new sanctions and the E.U. genuinely phases out Russian energy, the Kremlin will have very limited alternatives to compensate for the lost revenue. The recent unspecified agreement with China to construct another natural gas pipeline will require years to materialize, and India is now unspecified regarding its significant Russian oil imports—after it incurred Trump’s displeasure and unspecified repercussions.
Should Ukraine manage to sustain this pressure, it can adequately weaken the Russian budget to create an opportunity for concluding the conflict.
Should President Zelensky achieve this, it could be regarded as one of history’s most brilliant military strategies. And if President Trump lends his support, he will justifiably be able to claim credit for concluding Russia’s war in Ukraine—he may even emerge as a serious contender for an unspecified recognition.
