The January 3rd capture and extradition of President Nicolas Maduro by the United States signals a fresh era of unpredictability for Venezuela. Following the event, citizens throughout the nation rushed to supermarkets to hoard provisions, driven by anxieties over potential instability and violence. At a UN Security Council emergency session on January 5th, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned about the risk of instability spreading across the region, not just within Venezuela.
There is widespread conjecture regarding Venezuela’s political trajectory. Nonetheless, it is perfectly evident that after years of humanitarian emergency, strained public services, and severe reductions in aid, any further decline in security and the economy would have catastrophic consequences for Venezuelans who are already vulnerable.
Widespread insecurity and economic volatility, coupled with the danger of increased violence, risk exacerbating humanitarian needs that are already severe and unaddressed. Sadly, it is civilians who bear the cost.
In December 2025, I toured programs run by my organization, the International Rescue Committee (IRC), at the Venezuela-Colombia border. Since 2018, we have provided
humanitarian aid to displaced Venezuelans and Colombians escaping conflict. Conversations with displaced communities and our personnel highlighted the already desperate circumstances confronting many groups.
The situation in Venezuela is bleak, with a ten-year political and economic crisis causing the breakdown of health, education, and other essential infrastructure. Hyperinflation has made food and other staple items unaffordable for the majority of the population, who are estimated to live in poverty. Close to 8 million Venezuelans are in need, requiring critical support such as health services, nutrition, water, and other aid.
The crisis in Venezuela has extended past its borders for some time. Approximately 7.9 million Venezuelans have left the country, with most finding refuge in Latin American nations like Colombia, which hosts almost 3 million Venezuelans. Around half of those displaced in the region are unable to afford three daily meals or secure suitable housing.
Colombia and other nations hosting refugees are confronting their own difficulties. Both displaced Venezuelans and Colombians are affected by escalating internal strife in Colombia, where violence impacted around 1.5 million people in 2025. The 2016 Peace Accord, which concluded a conflict lasting decades between the government and non-state armed groups, is faltering as these groups battle for control of land and resources, including the illicit drug trade.
On my visit, I listened to accounts from women who escaped Venezuela seeking safety and a stable life for themselves and their children. Some had relocated to Colombian towns that were subsequently taken over by armed groups, forcing them to flee a second, or even third, time. Colombians described seeing executions and expressed fear for their children in an environment where the forced recruitment of children surged by 1,000% between 2021 and 2024. Many recounted sexual assaults experienced by themselves or people close to them.
However, cuts in aid from the U.S. and other global donors have left humanitarian organizations with insufficient resources to act. The pressure on capabilities was a recurring topic in all my discussions with IRC staff and partner agencies. A number of organizations have suspended operations inside Venezuela following the termination of U.S. grants in early 2025. Because of these aid reductions, an estimated 1.5 million fewer people in need were assisted in 2025 than in 2024.
The circumstances in countries sheltering displaced Venezuelans are equally severe. In late January 2025, a significant portion of our programs in Colombia were stopped due to a U.S. government stop-work order, only restarting months later. This damaged trust within communities and required extra expenses to reconstruct project frameworks. Other groups have had to shut down completely; UN representatives informed me that 20 out of 38 organizations working in Cucuta, a Colombian border town, are expected to close by year’s end. In 2025, the UN announced it would reduce its footprint in Colombia due to worldwide aid cuts.
This erosion of humanitarian capability implies that if the security scenario worsens or more displacement happens, organizations are poorly prepared to address the needs. In Venezuela, tensions are still elevated with the risk of violent crackdowns, internal power conflicts, and further military operations. In Colombia, the government has prepared for possible displacement but is also dealing with significant budget limitations and its own internal displacement crisis.
Much about Venezuela’s political future is still unknown. Immediate international action is required to expand the humanitarian effort and lessen the effects on civilians in Venezuela and the wider region:
First, the global community must make it a priority to avert violent conflict and its humanitarian consequences for civilians in Venezuela and throughout the region. Some nations have volunteered to mediate talks to reduce the threat of conflict, and multilateral involvement, particularly through the United Nations, is crucial for developing solutions that prioritize civilians.
Second, donors need to guarantee that organizations have the funds to aid communities that are already vulnerable. This involves both quick, adaptable funding to tackle pressing humanitarian requirements and long-term backing for civil society and markets to facilitate a shift from aid to self-reliance. According to our teams’ evaluations, medical and psychological support for survivors of sexual assault and conflict is crucial. Limited aid can be used more effectively by funding methods that assist more individuals at a lower expense. For instance, in places with relatively stable local markets like Colombia, cash assistance is a very efficient solution that aids communities in obtaining food and other essentials while boosting local economies.
Finally, donors and policymakers ought to back local actors operating on the front lines. In Colombia, this entails providing technical and financial support to Colombian municipalities and community-based groups that are addressing the needs of both newly displaced individuals and those displaced long-term. In Venezuela, local organizations are critical to making sure the most isolated communities are included. They also represent a crucial stronghold
of civil society in a nation where repression has severely limited civic freedoms. Yet these organizations—which delivered 58% of all aid in 2025—have been most severely affected by aid reductions.
A deepening humanitarian crisis for Venezuelans can be averted. However, it will demand strategic, continuous international involvement to shield civilians from the effects of escalating geopolitical tensions and to make certain that humanitarian groups have the means to assist them.
