Donald Trump’s and the and his wife by U.S. Special Forces . Observers across the U.S., Europe, China, Russia, and other regions are left wondering what Trump’s bold deployment of force might imply for other nations: Colombia, Cuba, Iran, even Mexico and.
But what about Venezuela itself? How will the strikes, arrests, and trial of Venezuela’s President affect that country’s future?
First, some positive news—at least for those who feared Maduro’s capture would create a power vacuum filled only by violence. The apparent ease with which U.S. soldiers points to an inside collaboration, pre-coordinated between the Trump Administration and Venezuela’s military. It’s significant that Maduro’s Vice President, , was quickly sworn in with the backing of the country’s defense and interior ministers—a continuity signal that Washington has accepted.
Rodriguez has denounced the U.S. attack defiantly—she grieved the “kidnapping” of Maduro and his wife—but Trump’s clear willingness to use force and the need to stabilize her government (in part by lifting the current U.S. oil blockade on Venezuela) will push her toward a pragmatic stance.
Trump on Jan. 3 that the U.S. will “oversee Venezuela” for now and refused to rule out American troops on the ground. This is less a real possibility than a pressure tactic. The U.S. President hasn’t demanded an opposition-led government take power; he brushed off questions about , the Nobel Peace Prize winner whose exact location is unknown, describing her as a “very nice woman” who “lacks respect within the country.” For now, Trump seems to trust a military-backed government that needs his support more than an opposition movement with its own vision for Venezuela’s future.
Nor does Trump want the U.S. involved in the kind of “nation-building” project a full power transfer would require—something the American public is of after two decades of chaotic Middle East interventions. All this suggests that, while the situation remains fluid, Trump and Rodriguez can help Venezuela avoid a surge of dangerous chaos.
Then comes the hard part. Though Trump isn’t rushing to push for true regime change in Venezuela, pressure for new elections will soon grow both inside and outside the country. Ensuring these elections happen will be a priority for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, other cabinet members, and both and Democrats in Congress. This will also be a for European governments, which will play a crucial role in providing financial support to Venezuela (including from the IMF). Demands for free and fair elections will, of course, also come from Venezuela’s opposition and its supporters at home and abroad.
New elections would likely take a year to organize. Only tough negotiations between the Trump Administration and Venezuela’s remaining military and security power players can clear a path for them, but any power-sharing deal that undermines the opposition’s ability to win as much power as voters allow will surely trigger protests and violence risks. The Maduro regime’s security forces typically responded to anti-government protests , but the still fragile, military-backed government will need to normalize relations with the Trump Administration to restore oil revenue flows and other forms of aid.
According to the U.N., have fled Venezuela in recent years seeking a better life. Many already face pressure to return home—especially from Latin American and Caribbean countries that host the vast majority. Over 1 million have moved to the U.S., most with In the coming months, all these people will become players—shaping both the politics of their adopted countries and Venezuela’s future.
