CHINA-TIANJIN-SUMMER DAVOS-SESSION (CN)

Will 2025 see greater or lesser political stability than 2024?

Our annual meeting preparations occur amidst the most complex geopolitical landscape in decades, a situation projected to persist into 2025. Essentially, we’re experiencing a geopolitical recession. Fortunately, its impact on the global economy has been less severe than anticipated; we still foresee growth exceeding 3%. Barring further conflict escalation or new crises, 2025 is expected to mirror 2024’s challenging geopolitical climate.

What does ‘geopolitical recession’ mean?

It signifies a world marked by polarization and fragmentation, characterized by reduced cooperation and intensified competition, with a heightened emphasis on national interests. This poses a challenge, as many global issues demand collaborative solutions.

This year will be crucial for Europe’s future. What opportunities do you foresee for the E.U.?

We stand at a pivotal moment, akin to 1918, 1945, or 1989, as we transition between world orders. A new order is emerging, but its exact form remains uncertain. The ongoing war in Ukraine, coupled with the instability in Syria, poses a significant threat to Europe. Preventing Syria’s descent into further sectarian conflict and establishing an inclusive governance framework are crucial. Europe also faces an economic turning point, requiring strategic decisions to enhance competitiveness. The situation is nuanced; Spain’s economy is thriving, Greece is experiencing rapid growth, and the euro remains a leading global currency. However, Germany and France grapple with substantial economic and political challenges respectively.

What insights does President Donald Trump’s election offer regarding this future order?

President Trump’s election stemmed from concerns over immigration and inflation. A stronger focus on U.S. national interests is anticipated. While the new world order remains undefined, it’s likely to be multipolar, with increased global participation, though the U.S. retains considerable influence. In defense, a unipolar order persists, with the U.S. controlling 45% of global military capabilities. Trump’s role in shaping this new order will be significant, determining whether it will be multipolar with multilateralism or a multipolar order with a diminished role for multilateralism. Economically, the U.S., alongside China and the E.U., maintains significant global importance.

What key message do you hope attendees take away from Davos?

That we’ve identified areas ripe for collaboration due to shared self-interest, such as combating cybercrime and enhancing pandemic preparedness. AI, while potentially an equalizer, also risks creating a winner-takes-all scenario; initiating discussions on basic regulatory frameworks is necessary. Regarding climate change, while political perspectives vary, the snowball effect of the $2 trillion invested in renewables is undeniable. Davos provides an ideal platform to generate such positive momentum; we aim for numerous such snowball effects.