Analysts Maintain Bullish Stance on Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Following Significant Rally

TLDR

• Jefferies increased its XOM price objective to $184 from $178, suggesting approximately 18.25% upside potential, and reaffirmed its “buy” rating.
• XOM announced Q4 earnings per share of $1.71, exceeding the $1.63 estimate, on revenue of $80.04 billion.
• The conflict involving Iran disrupted about 6% of Exxon’s worldwide output, leading to near-term profit pressure.
• Wells Fargo raised its rating on XOM to “overweight” with a $185 target; the Wall Street consensus is a “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $157.42.
• Exxon’s expansion in Guyana and the Permian Basin provides it with production assets located outside the politically unstable Middle East.

(SeaPRwire) –   The bullish argument for Exxon Mobil (XOM) holds firm amid a mix of contradictory indicators from Wall Street and the Middle East. The firm is successfully managing geopolitical disturbances as analysts persist in increasing their price targets.

Exxon Mobil Corporation, XOM

On Thursday, Jefferies boosted its price target to $184 from $178, keeping a “buy” recommendation. This indicates an approximate 18.25% gain from recent closing levels. Wells Fargo also provided fresh impetus for purchasers by upgrading XOM to “overweight” with a $185 target.

However, sentiment is not universally positive. Wolfe Research reduced its target to $153 from $158, while BMO Capital Markets maintained a “market perform” rating and a $155 target. In aggregate, the Wall Street consensus is a “Moderate Buy,” derived from 13 Buy, seven Hold, and one Sell recommendations, with a mean target of $157.42.

On Thursday, XOM shares were trading at $155.61, showing a minor decline for the day. The stock has a market capitalization of approximately $648 billion, a P/E ratio of 23.30, and a 50-day moving average of $154.

Regarding earnings, XOM surpassed Q4 forecasts. The company reported EPS of $1.71, beating the $1.63 consensus. Revenue totaled $80.04 billion, exceeding the $77.98 billion projection, despite representing a 1.3% decrease compared to the previous year.

The Iran conflict is generating significant near-term challenges for Exxon. The company revealed that approximately 6% of its global production was affected. Management also indicated that Q1 results for both upstream and downstream operations would be negatively impacted. Positively, Exxon stated that elevated crude and gas prices resulting from the conflict could increase Q1 upstream earnings by up to $2.9 billion.

A brief halt in attacks near the Strait of Hormuz temporarily improved market sentiment, driving crude prices down and weighing on XOM earlier in the trading session. Nevertheless, maritime transit through the strait continues to be hindered, and insurers remain wary.

Guyana and the Permian Provide a Buffer

Exxon’s expansion narrative beyond the Middle East is a crucial element of the bullish thesis. Output from the Stabroek Block in Guyana has expanded rapidly and is now a primary growth driver for the company.

The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources is also proving successful in the Permian Basin, providing Exxon with a bigger, more cost-effective production footprint in West Texas. The short-cycle characteristics of the Permian enable Exxon to adapt more swiftly to market changes than competitors involved in projects with greater political limitations.

Valuation Debate

XOM has gained about 61% over the last year, leading some analysts to ponder the remaining potential for appreciation. Trading at roughly 21 times the estimated 2026 EPS of $7.4, it commands a valuation above the historical average for major oil companies.

Exxon’s 12-month high is $176.41, and its 12-month low was $97.80. Company insiders sold 11,460 shares valued at $1.69 million in the previous quarter. Institutional investors own 61.80% of the stock.

Analysts from Erste Group raised their EPS projections for Exxon for fiscal years 2026–2027, pointing to enhanced core earnings outlook. The consensus analyst EPS forecast for the full year is $7.43.