Bernstein Forecasts Prediction Markets Will Reach $1 Trillion by 2030

TLDR

• Bernstein forecasts prediction market volumes will hit $240 billion in 2026 and $1 trillion by 2030
• Kalshi and Polymarket have already recorded $60 billion in volume in 2026 — exceeding the total for all of 2025
• Kalshi’s weekly trading volume has increased from $100 million to more than $3 billion in a single year
• Blockchain integration and clear federal regulations are viewed as major growth catalysts
• Robinhood and Coinbase are identified as the primary public market proxies for the industry

(SeaPRwire) –   Prediction markets are poised to become a trillion-dollar industry by the end of the decade, per a new report from investment firm Bernstein.

PREDICTION MARKETS MIGHT REACH $1T BY 2030

Bernstein forecasts prediction market volumes will rise from $51B in 2025 to $1T by 2030, with revenues exceeding $10B.

Robinhood and Coinbase could become key distribution platforms. pic.twitter.com/GqTbmxShqm

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) April 15, 2026

Bernstein analysts predict total prediction market volumes will reach $240 billion in 2026 alone — a 370% increase from 2025. With a compound annual growth rate of approximately 80%, the firm anticipates the market will hit $1 trillion annually by 2030.

Kalshi and Polymarket are the two biggest platforms in the sector. Combined, they logged roughly $60 billion in market volume in the early months of 2026 — which already surpasses the $51 billion total volume for all of 2025.

Kalshi commands over 90% of the U.S. prediction market share. The platform’s weekly trading volume has grown from around $100 million a year prior to over $3 billion currently.

Bank of America analyst Julie Hoover described Kalshi as one of the “fastest-growing non-AI companies” in the U.S. She pointed out that the platform’s growth rates are comparable to those observed during the AI boom.

What’s Fueling the Growth

Prediction markets began to gain momentum around the 2024 U.S. presidential election. They continued to grow in 2025 as sports, crypto, and macroeconomic contracts grew in popularity among traders.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani identifies three primary growth drivers: clear federal regulations, mainstream distribution partnerships, and superior liquidity relative to state-regulated betting markets.

Blockchain technology is also contributing to growth. It enables global liquidity, allows platforms to offer contracts on highly specific or niche events, and reduces barriers for institutional investors to take part.

Chhugani anticipates the mix of contracts will change over time. Sports contracts currently account for over 60% of volume, but he expects that share to be roughly halved by 2030 as institutional contracts related to economics, politics, and business expand.

New entrants are joining the market. Robinhood, DraftKings, and Underdog have either launched or are developing their own prediction market offerings.

Regulatory Challenges on the Horizon

The industry isn’t free of legal risks. Legal proceedings are currently pending in 14 U.S. states, and four congressional bills are underway. Concerns include insider trading and debates over who has the authority to regulate these platforms.

Several states assert they have the right to regulate sports-related prediction contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), though, is pushing back and claims exclusive federal authority over the sector.

Chhugani doesn’t believe these challenges will derail long-term growth. He thinks platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket will benefit from increasing alignment with federal regulators such as the SEC and CFTC.

Robinhood’s prediction markets hub is now a year old and generates $350 million in annual recurring revenue. It makes up roughly 30% of Kalshi’s total volume and is Robinhood’s fastest-growing business segment.

Chhugani identified Robinhood and Coinbase as the primary public market proxies for investors seeking exposure to private prediction market firms.