Bitcoin (BTC) gains 3% within minutes following Netanyahu’s ceasefire announcement

TLDR

• Bitcoin surpassed $72,000 following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s announcement of ceasefire negotiations with Lebanon.
• Over the last month, BTC has seen a 9% increase, contrasting with a 12% decrease in the iShares Tech-Software ETF.
• February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate was reported at 2.8% year-over-year, meeting expectations.
• The US fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised downward to 0.5% annualized, sparking concerns about a potential recession.
• March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the first since the commencement of the US-Iran conflict, is anticipated to show an increase.

(SeaPRwire) –   Bitcoin traded above the $72,000 mark on Thursday, buoyed by a positive development in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed his cabinet to initiate ceasefire negotiations with Lebanon regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah. This news helped to reverse what had been a downward trend for cryptocurrency markets earlier in the day.

Following the announcement, BTC experienced a surge of approximately 3%, reaching $72,300. US stock markets also saw a recovery, with the Nasdaq climbing 0.65%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices retreated from nearly $103 per barrel to approximately $98.60 after the news.

Bitcoin demonstrated stronger performance compared to other major cryptocurrencies on the same day. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP each recorded gains of less than 1%, while BTC maintained its leading position.

Earlier in the day, February PCE inflation data was released and aligned with projections. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that PCE increased by 2.8% year-over-year, with core PCE showing a slight decrease to 3%, down from 3.1% in January.

BREAKING: February PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was unchanged at 2.8%, in-line expectations of 2.8%.

Core PCE inflation falls to 3.0%, in-line with expectations of 3.0%.

This marks the final pre-Iran War PCE inflation datapoint.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 9, 2026

Prior to the ceasefire news, Bitcoin had already begun to rebound, moving from an intraday low of $70,500 to around $71,200 after the inflation data was published.

It is important to note that the February PCE data reflects the period before the US-Iran conflict began in late February. Economists and traders are awaiting more recent data to assess the impact of the conflict on prices.

Bitcoin Pulls Away From Software Stocks

Bitcoin and software stocks have exhibited divergent performance trends over the past month. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has declined by 12% in the last 30 days, while BTC has appreciated by 9% during the same timeframe.

The 20-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the IGV has fallen to 0.34, indicating a distinct separation in the performance of these two asset classes.

Fed Stays on Hold, Recession Risk Grows

The annualized rate for US fourth-quarter GDP was revised downward to 0.5%, suggesting a slowdown in economic growth. Despite this, investors displayed reduced risk aversion, partly attributed to the expectation that slower growth could lead to government liquidity injections.

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that Fed officials remain open to interest rate cuts this year. However, a majority also stated they would consider rate hikes if inflation remains significantly above the 2% target. Data from CME FedWatch shows a 98.4% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates at its April 29 meeting.

A weakening US dollar has provided support for Bitcoin, as diminished confidence in the Fed’s inflation management strategies typically benefits assets with limited supply.

March CPI data is scheduled for release on Friday. Forecasts from Wall Street suggest an annual increase of 3.3%, up from 2.4% in February, which would represent the first inflation reading since the commencement of the US-Iran war.