TLDR

  • Bob Burnett thinks Bitcoin’s hashrate will grow steadily and follow Moore’s Law.
  • Dr. Jeff Ross forecasts a sharp jump in Bitcoin hashrate starting in 2026, driven by tax benefits.
  • The 2026 U.S. tax code lets miners fully depreciate infrastructure costs in the year they buy them.
  • Burnett argues energy access is a bigger constraint than capital or hardware availability.
  • Grid connection delays in regions like Texas are expected to slow rapid mining expansion.

Bitcoin’s hashrate is unlikely to surge sharply in the years ahead, says Barefoot Mining CEO Bob Burnett, who anticipates network growth will match advances in computing hardware—even as analysts share conflicting views on future expansion tied to infrastructure capacity.

Ross Predicts Bitcoin Hashrate Surge in 2026

Dr. Jeff Ross, founder of Vailshire Capital Management, expects Bitcoin hashrate to grow rapidly in 2026 due to tax incentives. He cited the U.S. tax code’s reinstatement of 100% bonus depreciation as the main reason behind this forecast.

This rule allows miners to fully write off infrastructure costs in the year of purchase instead of over multiple years. Ross believes this will strongly encourage miners to upgrade equipment and expand operations starting in January 2026.

He ,

“If you’re a Bitcoin miner and you’re going to buy a crazy amount of ASICs, you’ll wait until 2026.”

In his view, this enables an instant tax write-off, making large-scale investments more appealing and financially efficient.

Ross further commented,

“Some Bitcoin miners will be paying close to zero taxes for 2026 and 2027.”

He also thinks they might carry over deductions into 2028, using tax rules to manage taxable income.

This setup, he argues, will lead to what he calls hardware over-investment as companies try to shield their profits. With ASICs available and tax benefits in place, miners are expected to expand quickly.

Ross emphasized that many will rush to maximize benefits under this rule—building new facilities and scaling fast. He sees this as the key driver behind a rapid jump in Bitcoin hashrate across the mining sector.

The Reality Case

Bob Burnett doubts Ross’s forecast and believes physical limits will hinder exponential growth. He contends that energy availability, not capital or hardware, will define expansion.

“There isn’t enough additional energy to let the hash rate skyrocket,” Burnett said in a recent analysis. He thinks miners face lengthy delays in accessing power infrastructure despite having funds available.

In places like Texas, grid interconnection delays now take years, Burnett noted. He explained that new mining equipment is worthless without grid access or operational transformers.

Miners might have capital and equipment ready, but without power, they can’t activate new machines. Burnett highlighted this as a serious constraint on growth expectations.

He also pointed out that scaling infrastructure isn’t instant—even if miners rush purchases in 2026. Burnett said machines without electricity are just “expensive paperweights.”

The Moore’s Law Prediction

Burnett expects Bitcoin’s hashrate to adhere to Moore’s Law in the years ahead, rather than spike sharply. refers to the consistent, predictable doubling of computing power every two years.

He views this trend as a more realistic model for forecasting hashrate growth given current conditions. Instead of exponential increases, Burnett predicts steady gains tied to chip efficiency.

He said, “Hash rate increases over the foreseeable future are more likely to just follow Moore’s Law.” Burnett maintains this outcome fits better with hardware trends and infrastructure challenges.

Burnett’s outlook suggests that even with policy incentives, growth will be slowed by physical constraints. The mining sector may pursue rapid expansion, but energy availability will limit deployment.