Netflix (NFLX) Stock Slides 13% — Is This a Buying Opportunity?

TLDR

• Netflix’s stock has declined approximately 13% over five trading days following worse-than-expected Q2 guidance
• Wolfe Research reaffirmed an Outperform rating with a $107 price target, citing robust engagement trends
• Co-founder Reed Hastings plans to step down from the board once his term expires in June
• Non-English content accounted for roughly 68% of 2025 engagement, down from 70-71% in 2023 and 2024
• Wall Street’s consensus remains a Strong Buy: 29 Buys, 8 Holds, with an average price target of $114.96

(SeaPRwire) –   Netflix’s stock has had a tough week. NFLX fell around 13% across five trading sessions after the company’s Q1 2026 earnings report left investors underwhelmed — not because of its prior performance, but its future outlook.

Netflix, Inc., NFLX

Q1 revenue and EBIT came in roughly 1% above Piper Sandler’s estimates. But Q2 guidance was the sticking point. Revenue guidance landed 0.5% below market consensus, while operating income guidance missed estimates by 5%. That’s the kind of discrepancy that pushes a stock lower.

On top of that, Reed Hastings — Netflix co-founder and current board chairman — will step down when his term ends in June. This news was released alongside the earnings report, adding to the downward pressure on the stock.

What Wolfe Research Says

Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino did not waver. He reiterated a Buy rating and kept his $107 price target unchanged, pointing to what he calls solid core engagement trends.

Supino directly addressed the widespread concern that Netflix is losing viewers to YouTube, Meta, and TikTok. His data indicates Netflix’s engagement remains stable. He describes the platform as a “highly differentiated product” whose value extends beyond just total watch time.

He also noted that the average U.S. Netflix subscriber spends 1.6 hours per day on the platform — roughly one-third of their daily video viewing time — a strong foundation to build upon.

Supino believes Netflix can continue raising prices as long as the platform remains a daily habit for its subscribers. He sees potential for consistent mid-single-digit subscriber growth if connected TV households keep growing by 70 to 100 million annually and Netflix maintains its roughly 30% penetration rate among those homes.

Engagement Trends Worth Watching

Non-English content made up 68% of total engagement in 2025, a drop from the 70-71% share seen in 2023 and 2024. That 2-3 percentage point shift equates to roughly 4 to 6 billion additional viewing hours going toward English-language programming.

International engagement per subscriber fell in the high single-digit range in 2025, compared to low single-digit declines in the U.S. Wolfe links part of this trend to Netflix’s expansion into markets like Japan, where average TV viewing is roughly 50% lower than in the U.S.

This is a genuine headwind, but Supino frames it as a mathematical issue rather than a product flaw. Netflix is simply adding more subscribers in lower-consumption markets.

The stock currently trades at around $92.58. With a PEG ratio of 0.64, InvestingPro flagged it as undervalued relative to near-term earnings growth. Revenue growth over the last twelve months stands at 16.7%.

Other analysts have adjusted their price targets following the earnings release. Piper Sandler raised its target to $115 from $103. KeyBanc held its target at $115. Bernstein trimmed its target from $115 to $110. Guggenheim cut its target from $130 to $120. TD Cowen maintained its target at $112. All kept positive ratings in place.

Wall Street’s current consensus: 29 Buys, 8 Holds, average price target of $114.96 — implying roughly 24% upside from current trading levels.