TLDR
- NIO has regained both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, and they are now trending upward.
- A bullish RSI divergence and significant volume spikes during price increases indicate diminishing selling pressure.
- A double bottom base has formed with a pivot at $5.79, and the price target is $8 in the second half of 2026.
- Options activity is intensifying — 58,591 call contracts were traded, with a put/call ratio of only 0.30.
- Peer XPeng (XPEV) has risen 14% this week, strengthening the broader signal of the Chinese EV recovery.
NIO has been a challenging stock to hold. After reaching a peak above $60 in early 2021, the stock spent several years declining before stabilizing in the single digits. Now, for the first time in a while, the charts are presenting a different narrative.
NIO Inc., NIO
The stock was trading around $5.60 on Thursday, up approximately 19% for the week — which would be its best weekly gain since late August 2025 if it holds until Friday’s close.
The technical setup is attracting attention. NIO has regained both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages this week, and both are now sloping upward. This represents a clear change from where the stock was just a few months ago.
A bullish RSI divergence has emerged, with higher RSI lows even as the price reached new lows. This pattern often signals that the downward momentum is losing strength. Volume is supporting this — large spikes on up days are a typical sign of institutional money flowing in.
The stock also successfully retested a bull flag breakout from last August. A double bottom base has now been established with a pivot of $5.79. The trigger for this pattern was a bearish island reversal that concluded with a 7.3% gap down on December 31. NIO then formed a bullish hammer candle on March 3, and in the very next session, completed a bullish island reversal to the upside.
The projected upside target is $8 by the second half of 2026 — a 42% increase from current levels. The bullish case remains valid above $4.75.
Longer-Term Picture
Looking at the five-year weekly chart, the bottoming process becomes more evident. Since the start of 2024, NIO has been consolidating in what appears to be a base-building phase. Since last October, the right clavicle of a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has been forming.
If the $8 breakout level is surpassed later in 2026, the longer-term target for this pattern is around $13 by early 2027.
Accumulation has been evident since last summer, with buyers consistently stepping in to defend lower levels.
Options Market Is Watching Too
The options market is following this movement. On Thursday, 58,591 call contracts were traded in NIO. Near-term contracts for March 13 and March 26 expirations accounted for approximately 19,900 of these. The put/call ratio is only 0.30 — a low figure indicating that traders are buying calls at a much higher rate than puts.
Implied volatility has also increased, reflecting the heightened speculative interest.
NIO’s next earnings report is expected on June 2, which may be contributing to this positioning.
Year-to-date, NIO has risen 7.25%. Its current market cap is $12.48 billion.
XPeng is also having a strong week, up 14% as of Thursday afternoon and on track to end a three-week losing streak.
