California Governor’s Race Reshaped Following Swalwell’s Departure

(SeaPRwire) –   The California governor’s race experienced a turbulent weekend. Democratic frontrunner Rep. Eric Swalwell withdrew from the contest amid scandal, while state Republicans refused to endorse the candidate selected by President Donald Trump, throwing months of campaigning into disarray. The race was already characterized by a large field of candidates and internal party conflicts.

Swalwell terminated his campaign on Sunday after multiple allegations of sexual misconduct were reported. He expressed being “deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment” from his past but maintained that the allegations were “false.” By Monday evening, he stated his intention to resign from his congressional seat.

Prior to the allegations becoming public, polls indicated Swalwell was the leading Democratic candidate in the packed field. His departure leaves nine major contenders—seven Democrats and two Republicans—competing to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom. Newsom, who is considering a 2028 presidential bid, is barred from running again due to term limits.

Political experts interviewed by TIME indicate uncertainty about who will now lead the race but highlight two potential frontrunners: billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer, who ran an unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2020, and former California Congresswoman Katie Porter. Pre-withdrawal polls showed Steyer and Porter trailing Swalwell with very close numbers, often separated by just a few percentage points.

Eric Schickler, a political science professor at UC Berkeley, noted, “Up until last week, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter were right behind Swalwell. I think many Democrats will be evaluating both to determine a preferred candidate.”

Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, said both candidates are well-known. Steyer has outspent all others on campaign advertising, having allocated approximately $89 million for over a million ad airings as of Thursday, per the San Francisco Chronicle.

“If you live in California, you have probably seen his ads,” Grose remarked.

Porter also has recognition from her time in Congress. However, her campaign suffered a setback in the fall when online videos showed her threatening to leave a reporter’s interview and reprimanding a staff member. She issued apologies for both incidents at an October public forum.

Grose described the race as “so fluid,” making it difficult to predict a Democratic favorite. “If I had to guess, perhaps Steyer, just because he does have so much money,” he said, while also noting that voters often “distrust” candidates who heavily self-fund their campaigns, a potential disadvantage for Steyer.

Schickler added that “some level of discomfort exists among some Democrats about a billionaire without prior elected office becoming the party’s standard-bearer.” However, he also observed “a growing desperation to settle on one candidate, which probably does help Steyer right now.”

Despite California’s strong Democratic leanings, its unique primary system increases the pressure on the large field of Democratic contenders.

The primary is scheduled for June 2. California uses a top-two primary system, where the two candidates with the most votes, irrespective of party, advance to the November general election. Democrats worry that their crowded field could split the party’s vote, potentially allowing the two Republican candidates—Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco—to secure both spots on the November ballot.

Both Schickler and Grose believe it is unlikely, though possible, that Democrats will be excluded from the general election.

Trump endorsed Hilton last week. Pre-endorsement polls showed Hilton, a former Fox News host and strategist for ex-British PM David Cameron, leading among Republicans.

Experts suggest Trump’s endorsement of Hilton might benefit Democrats by consolidating Republican support around one candidate, thereby reducing the chance that both Hilton and Bianco advance.

“Trump’s endorsement makes it less likely that Democrats face what would be a disaster for the party,” Schickler stated. “But I don’t think it eliminates it.”

On Sunday, California Republicans did not issue an official party endorsement. Neither Hilton nor Bianco reached the required 60% threshold from party delegates. Instead, delegates broke with the President, giving Bianco 49% support compared to Hilton’s 44%.

According to Schickler, this outcome could signal to Republican voters that “these are both credible candidates—both credible Republicans.”

“I think it’s not likely that you end up with two Republicans making it,” he continued. “It’s just hard in such a Democratic state. But it is a possibility, which just suggests how disorganized the Democratic race is right now.”