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Since Taiwan’s President Lai’s inauguration in May 2024 and the U.S. President’s inauguration in January, Beijing has been anxious. Will Lai provoke a response through his actions? And what stance will Trump take regarding Taiwan and its efforts to remain independent from China?
The answers are complex. Initially, Lai avoided provoking Beijing. The election last year seemed to remove any political need to appease his nationalist base with aggressive actions or statements toward mainland China. However, his Democratic Progressive Party lacks a parliamentary majority, and he is uncertain if the Trump Administration will support him. Regardless of his political intentions, Lai’s stance on cross-Strait issues has become more assertive recently.
On March 13, Lai gave a speech outlining Taiwan’s strategies to counter China’s threats and its attempts to infiltrate the government and society. Predictably, Beijing responded with 18 official commentaries via state media attacking Lai and his plans. Two weeks later, he was labeled a “danger maker,” and the People’s Liberation Army released propaganda videos simulating a blockade of Taiwan. Following this, the Chinese navy conducted exercises simulating “assaults on maritime and ground targets, and a blockade on key areas and sea lanes,” according to a PLA official. The Chinese coast guard also deployed vessels for a patrol encircling Taiwan.
Similar moves and countermoves have occurred frequently between China and Taiwan. However, this time, both sides are struggling to understand Trump’s true intentions.
Currently, Taiwan needs to protect its economy from external risks. Lai’s negotiators engaged in initial trade discussions with the White House on April 11, shortly after proposing a reciprocal zero-tariff system with the U.S. and increased American purchases and investments. On April 14, Lai then advocated for a framework to assist Taiwanese companies in relocating and expanding into the American market.
While his tariff intentions toward Taiwan are unknown, Trump is unlikely to abandon it, at least in the short term. He has expressed flexibility regarding territorial integrity. If he is hesitant to incur costs and risks to help Ukraine against Russia, can Taiwan be confident that Trump will commit U.S. troops and funds to defend an “ally” thousands of miles away?
However, Trump’s Cabinet includes China hawks, and defending Taiwan against China is a common goal for most Republicans in Washington. Beijing knows a full-scale invasion risks direct war with the U.S., a dangerous gamble for China’s fragile economy, especially with Trump’s increased tariffs.
For Chinese leaders, delaying a full-scale invasion until their military is stronger, their economy is more stable, and the U.S. has a more predictable President is safer. The real danger is that China will test U.S. resolve and Trump’s reactions with smaller provocations, none individually significant enough to cause a crisis.
Unfortunately, it is not that simple. As U.S.-China relations deteriorate, the breakdown of communication between Washington and Beijing could allow any accident or miscalculation to escalate into a major military crisis that both sides would prefer to avoid.
