Gazans hope to leave temporary shelters and return home following a ceasefire, but widespread destruction may hinder this.
Israeli attacks have devastated numerous neighborhoods, leaving behind rubble, destroyed infrastructure, and non-functional hospitals.
The timeline and feasibility of reconstruction remain uncertain.
A phased ceasefire agreement doesn’t address Gaza’s post-war governance or the lifting of the blockade imposed since Hamas’ 2007 takeover.
The UN estimates reconstruction could take over 350 years if the blockade persists.
Extensive structural damage
The full extent of damage is yet to be determined due to ongoing conflict and restricted access to heavily damaged northern Gaza.
The UN estimated last month that 69% of Gaza’s structures were damaged or destroyed, including over 245,000 homes. The World Bank estimated $18.5 billion in damage from the war’s first four months—nearly the combined 2022 GDP of the West Bank and Gaza.
Israel attributes the destruction to Hamas, whose October 7, 2023 attack killed approximately 1,200 Israelis and abducted 250. Israel’s counteroffensive has resulted in over 46,000 Palestinian deaths, with Gaza’s Health Ministry reporting over half were women and children.
Israel claims to have killed over 17,000 militants but hasn’t provided evidence. The military presented photos and videos showing Hamas utilizing residential areas for tunnels and rocket launchers.
Massive debris removal challenge
Reconstruction necessitates a monumental debris removal effort.
The UN estimates over 50 million tons of rubble—twelve times the Great Pyramid’s volume. Clearing this with 100 trucks would take over 15 years, hampered by limited space and the presence of unexploded ordnance and human remains. Thousands remain buried under the rubble.
Uncertain future
Rebuilding requires billions of dollars and access to materials and equipment—both uncertain.
The ceasefire calls for a three-to-five-year reconstruction project in its final phase, following hostage release and troop withdrawal.
This hinges on a still-unnegotiated second phase.
Reconstruction’s success depends on lifting the blockade, criticized as collective punishment. Israel justifies it to prevent Hamas’ military rebuilding.
Lifting the blockade might depend on Hamas’ removal, though alternative governance plans are absent.
International support for a revitalized Palestinian Authority governing Gaza is unlikely given Israel’s opposition and the lack of a viable alternative.
International donors are hesitant to invest without stable governance, potentially making temporary settlements permanent.