As a government shutdown approaches, two storms are developing in the Atlantic. This situation raises concerns for many about the potential impact on communities if extreme weather strikes while federal non-essential operations are paused.
The deadline to prevent a shutdown is tonight at midnight. Several federal agencies focused on climate and science face being left in a precarious position—though after already operating with reduced capacity due to earlier cuts this year, the immediate change might not be drastic. Nevertheless, the limited staff, funding, and data available could leave the federal government even less prepared to anticipate and respond to climate risks.
Neither Hurricane Humberto nor Tropical Storm Imelda is currently projected to make landfall in the continental United States. However, both are expected to produce some coastal flooding, high surf, and dangerous rip currents along parts of the East Coast this week. The positive news is that FEMA’s emergency response functions would continue during a government shutdown. The agency receives funding through the Disaster Relief Fund (DRF), which is allocated at the start of the financial year and remains available until expended. Therefore, it theoretically would not depend on ongoing federal government operations during a crisis. Much of the agency’s staff is deemed essential and would be available during an emergency.
Yet, given the mandatory early retirements, furloughs, and workforce reductions experienced across many government sectors earlier this year, FEMA, alongside other agencies, is already functioning with severely constrained resources.
“All of those anxieties we have about what might happen to FEMA during a shutdown essentially describe our current reality,” stated Manann Donoghoe, a fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Community Uplift. “FEMA is already operating under the ‘immediate-needs’ funding status that would apply during a government shutdown.”
In addition to staffing issues, FEMA’s funding has been depleting. A prior assessment estimated that the agency’s DRF would be exhausted by the end of August. This situation could have serious implications during a shutdown, particularly in a worst-case scenario.
“You would typically be looking at a scenario where you’d want to approach Congress for additional appropriations if a major event occurs, the costs of which exceed what is already in the Disaster Relief Fund,” Donoghoe explained.
If the agency required supplementary funds to address significant damage from a natural disaster during the shutdown, it would be unable to appeal to Congress.
A shutdown would also affect other agencies. In 2019, when a government shutdown led to the furlough of numerous federal workers for 35 days, scientists warned that this loss would significantly impact scientific research—and jeopardize data sets crucial for helping federal, state, and local governments prepare for natural disasters and inform policymakers about climate risks.
“Basic reductions in data collection mean that all entities, from private companies and corporations to state and local governments, are unable to plan,” said Carlos Martín, vice president for research and policy engagement at the nonprofit research institution Resources for the Future. “You need data regarding your demographics and greenhouse gas emissions to effectively compete globally, sell products internationally, and prepare your workforce and the long-term viability of communities.”
Even before the impending shutdown, delays in data collection have left the nation inadequately prepared for a major disaster. Martín noted, “Long-term planning is what determines whether these shocks are more severe and impactful, or more subdued and mitigated.” He concluded, “So it’s important to recognize that we are setting ourselves up for considerable challenges.”