The Philippines, a predominantly Catholic nation of nearly 120 million, is renowned for its vibrant Christmas celebrations beginning in September. However, this year, the holiday season has taken a somber turn for many Filipino families.
Estrella Pagarigan, who had decorated her home with recycled parols, lost her home—which had survived previous disasters—in early November when Typhoon Yinxing (Marce) devastated Cagayan province. Their home was among over a thousand destroyed in the region.
Pagarigan described the Category 4-equivalent storm as “exceptional,” stating that Christmas will be far less joyful this year.
Such powerful typhoons are becoming increasingly common in the Philippines, which experiences an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually. The country lies within the Pacific Typhoon Belt, with a typical typhoon season from July to October, encompassing 70% of annual storms. However, strong typhoons are increasingly impacting the holiday season, as seen in 2021 with the Category 5-equivalent typhoon that caused nearly $1 billion in damage.
2024 has been particularly harsh, with six tropical cyclones—including Marce—hitting the country between October and November, causing over $350 million in damage. In response, the Office of the President urged government workers to forgo lavish celebrations and donate to victims. The Department of Education issued a similar plea.
Climate experts warn of a rise in what some term “Christmas typhoons.” A study by Joseph Basconcillo and Il-Ju Moon revealed a 210% increase in typhoon frequency during the typically less active December-to-February period between 2012 and 2020; this figure would rise to 240% if extended to 2022. Basconcillo notes the false sense of security during this traditionally quieter period.
The increased frequency of Christmas typhoons isn’t definitively attributed to climate change. Basconcillo and Moon’s research links it to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability.
Atmospheric physicist Gerry Bagtasa, while acknowledging an upward trend in Christmas typhoons over the past 15-20 years, believes this may not continue indefinitely. Basconcillo stresses the need for improved typhoon preparedness in the Philippines.
For Paolo Mari, who lives in a flood-prone area, the increased typhoon risk has significantly reduced holiday enthusiasm. Decorations are now impractical due to frequent flooding.
However, resilience is also evident. In Albay province, disaster risk reduction officer Ian James Secillano reports that many are continuing holiday celebrations, albeit with a shift in focus towards relief efforts. The spirit remains, but resource allocation has changed.
