CANADA-POLITICS-POILIEVRE

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned on Monday to preempt a rebellion within his Liberal party following over a year of internal strife. Parliament is adjourned until March, with Trudeau remaining in office until a new Liberal leader is chosen. However, one outcome seems almost certain.

A politician frequently compared to Donald Trump is poised to become Canada’s next Prime Minister.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, is predicted to win the upcoming election decisively, ending the Trudeau era. Conservatives hold a more than 20-point lead in polls, fueled by widespread dissatisfaction over economic issues and other problems that have recently led to the downfall of several Western leaders.

A Poilievre majority government would grant him considerable power. Canadian Prime Ministers, in such circumstances, wield significant influence.

While not absolute rulers—they are subject to checks and balances from their caucus, the courts, Parliament, the Senate, special interest groups, and the public—Canadian Prime Ministers enjoy substantial control between elections. The Westminster system’s unique strength ensures Poilievre would likely have at least four years of strong support from his party, mirroring Trudeau’s earlier experience. This power would endure as long as his popularity remains high.

Poilievre is a forthright politician known for his direct communication style. A lifelong conservative, he is a firm ideologue reminiscent of the Reagan era. He advocates for 1980s-style economic policies, a strategy with a history of both successes and failures. He strongly believes in free markets and limiting government intervention, aiming to reduce taxes, regulations, and potentially social programs. He has expressed reservations about maintaining certain popular Trudeau-era social programs, including childcare benefits and a national pharmacare initiative.

The 45-year-old Poilievre has been a politician his entire career but has cultivated an outsider image. His manner is assertive. His rhetoric sometimes echoes far-right sentiments. He frequently clashes with journalists, sometimes employing questionable tactics to support his strong statements, and displays a tendency towards inflammatory language. He isn’t hesitant to engage in controversial debates, including those surrounding transgender rights. He projects an online persona reminiscent of an alt-right YouTuber, exhibiting a self-assuredness that is both striking and fitting for the current political climate.

However, Poilievre’s persona is multifaceted.

Since becoming Conservative leader, he has concentrated on key voter concerns, connecting with the working class. This strategy has proven highly effective during a period of economic hardship caused by the lingering effects of the pandemic, high interest rates, the war in Ukraine, and global inflation.

Poilievre’s focus on economic issues and his relatable, populist style have made him a compelling figure. His approach, however, could lead to increased political polarization in Canada, potentially mirroring the toxic partisanship seen in the U.S. since the Trump era.

For now, Poilievre’s disciplined approach has paid dividends. He has effectively engaged voters by reflecting their concerns about rising living costs, job security, and healthcare access. He is a controversial figure, but he’s tapping into prevalent public anger and frustration.

This anger currently serves Poilievre, but it could become his undoing. If he wins and fails to address Canadians’ key concerns effectively, he may find himself facing a similar fate to Trudeau and his predecessors.